Saturday ESPN College Basketball Picks: Ohio State @ Michigan Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/18/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Ohio State @ Michigan 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions 2/18/12: Michigan and Ohio State are bitter rivals on the football field, but Saturday night, the rivalry will head to the basketball court. The sixth-ranked Buckeyes (22-4) head to Ann Arbor to face the 19th-ranked Wolverines (19-7) with serious Big Ten title implications hanging in the balance. Ohio State is tied with Michigan State for the top spot, but Michigan is just one game back in the loss column. Knocking of the Buckeyes this weekend would give the Wolverines a serious shot at a conference title. Of course, upsetting Ohio State will be easier said than done, and the Buckeyes are five-point favorites on the road.

Saturday’s meeting is a rematch of a game in late January that Ohio State won 64-49 in Columbus. The 49 points scored by the Wolverines remain the lowest total by Michigan this season, and the Buckeyes controlled the game from start to finish. Since the meeting, both teams have lost to the Spartans, but for the most part, Michigan and Ohio State have been rock solid in conference play.

Both sides have different approaches on the offensive end. The Buckeyes like to play through the post, taking advantage of power forward Jared Sullinger. He is averaging more than 17 points per game, leading an efficient Ohio State offense that shoots more than 48 percent from the field and averages more than 75 points. Meanwhile, the Wolverines use a guard-oriented offense that relies on perimeter shooting. Guards Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke do a majority of the damage, with both players averaging more than 14 points per game.

While Hardaway and Burke have been effective at powering the Michigan offense, the Buckeyes enjoy the luxury of having balance. Sullinger is the centerpiece, but guard William Buford is also averaging more than 15 points per game. Swingman Deshaun Thomas chips in with more than 14 per game, as well. Both players have range out past the 3-point line, but they can score in and around the paint as well. The balance forces teams to pick their poison. Doubling Sullinger in the post may slow him down, but it could also lead to big games from Buford and Thomas. With the Wolverines lacking dominant post defenders, they simply have a tough time matching up with the Ohio State offense. It showed in the first meeting.

With Michigan lacking the personnel to hold the Buckeyes in check on the offensive end, the Wolverines will have to find a way to win while playing at Ohio State’s pace. The 3-point shot could be Michigan’s answer, and with five players having hit more than 30 3-pointers on the year, the Wolverines have the outside shooters to get the job done. As a team, Michigan has hit 212 3-pointers this season compared to just 128 by the Buckeyes. Playing in front of the home crowd, a few early makes from the perimeter could spark a barrage.

The X-factor could be Burke. The Ohio native would have played for the Buckeyes, but they didn’t have the scholarship space for him. Showing Ohio State what they missed out on has to be on his mind, and Burke will no doubt be extra motivated to have a big game. He probably pressed a bit too hard in the January meeting, committing five turnovers. However, he also scored 13 points. Burke should be a bit more composed in the rematch, which could mean even more points and fewer turnovers. He could be the added offense Michigan was missing in its loss to Ohio State.

In the end, the Buckeyes have the more balanced team, especially on the offensive end. The Wolverines don’t have a player that matches up well with Sullinger in the post, and even Buford and Thomas have more height than the Michigan perimeter players. Ohio State outrebounded Michigan 37-22 in the first meeting this season, and the Buckeyes’ advantage in that area isn’t going away. Playing at home should help the Wolverines’ on the offensive end, but it would take an unusually hot night from the perimeter to make up for the mismatches that the Buckeyes bring to the table.

Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes (-5) Cover the Spread

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