College Basketball Picks: Ohio State @ Indiana Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 12/31/11

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Ohio State @ Indiana 2011 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN2 12/31/11: Although the 15th-ranked Indiana Hoosiers (12-1) are coming off their first loss of the season, they have reason to be confident as Big Ten rival and second-ranked Ohio State (13-1) pays a visit Saturday. After all, the last time a highly-ranked opponent traveled to Assembly Hall, the top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats were sent home with a 73-72 defeat. The Buckeyes will be looking to avoid a similar fate, and both teams will be looking to secure a crucial conference victory. Coming off their loss to 17th-ranked Michigan State earlier this week, the Hoosiers are five-point underdogs in this matchup.

Offensively, both teams have similar systems that have produced similar results. Indiana and Ohio State both rank in the top 25 in terms of points per game, and both rank in the top 15 in terms of field goal percentage. The high-scoring, efficient offenses are both powered by strong frontcourt play. While the Hoosiers shoot a slightly higher percentage, the Buckeyes rank in the top 10 nationally in assists per game. Small differences aside, these two teams are very similar on the offensive end.

Fittingly, the matchup to watch will be the battle in the paint between Ohio Stat center Jared Sullinger and Indiana forward Cody Zeller. Sullinger has been bothered by injuries early in the year, but he is healthy for Saturday’s matchup. He is averaging more than 16 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game, and the Buckeyes haven’t lost a game when he has played. Only a freshman, Zeller has played a similar role for the Hoosiers, leading the team with 14.2 points and 6.9 rebounds.

The two will likely go head to head on both ends of the court, and while Zeller probably has an edge in athleticism, Sullinger has a more complete offensive skill set. It is also worth noting that Zeller struggled matching up against Michigan State’s physical post players, and Sullinger is about as physical as any big man in the country. Whichever player wins this matchup and controls the paint is going to set their team up for success.

In terms of a secondary scoring option, the Buckeyes have a slight edge. Guard William Buford is enjoying a career year, leading the team with 16.6 points per game. His ability to create his own shot, move without the ball and score from the perimeter makes him a complete offensive weapon. The fact that Buford is averaging 4.3 rebounds and 3.6 assists per game is just icing on the cake. Indiana counters with forward Chirstian Watford, who is averaging more than 13 points per game. Watford has surprising range for a big man, but he simply isn’t playing as well as Buford right now.

As always, the Buckeyes have one of the ultimate X-factors in guard Aaron Craft. The pesky defender is averaging almost three steals per and has been shutting down perimeter scorers all season. He is also getting more comfortable running the offense and is averaging more than five assists on the year. More importantly, his seemingly endless amount of energy has been tough for opponents to match. In what will likely be a tight game, Craft’s ability to make hustle plays will certainly come in handy.

Looking at the big picture, Saturday’s game means a lot more for the Hoosiers than it does the Buckeyes. The Buckeyes are on the short list of title contenders, and that isn’t going to change win or lose this weekend. The same cannot be said for the Hoosiers, who need to prove that their victory over Kentucky wasn’t a fluke. The loss to the Spartans didn’t help their case, and a loss to the Buckeyes would mean an 0-2 start to conference play. Unfortunately for Indiana, Sullinger and Ohio State has the same size and physicality in the paint that gave the Hoosiers trouble against Michigan State, along with better guard play. As long as Sullinger doesn’t leave with an unexpected injury, the Buckeyes should be fine.   

Prediction: Ohio State Buckeyes (-5.5) Cover the Spread

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