College Basketball Picks – Georgetown @ Louisville Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 12/28/11

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Georgetown Hoyas @ Louisville Cardinals 2011 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 12/28/11: For the fourth-ranked Louisville Cardinals (12-0), the talk this week has focused on Saturday’s matchup with the third-ranked Kentucky Wildcats. However, Rick Pitino’s bunch must first open Big East play against the 12th-ranked Georgetown Hoyas (10-1) Wednesday night. With a rivalry game against Kentucky looming, Louisville must avoid overlooking a Georgetown team that has been crushing opponents during an eight-game winning streak. That being said, the Cardinals are 5 ½-point favorites in Wednesday’s matchup.

Louisville boasts an undefeated record heading into the conference showdown, but the Hoyas may have the momentum. Georgetown has knocked off three ranked opponents during its winning streak, while the Cardinals have looked shaky in victories against Western Kentucky and College of Charleston. Granted, the Cardinals could have been playing down to their competition, but the Hoyas are playing well enough right now that intimidation shouldn’t be a factor.

On the court, the game could turn out to be a defensive battle. Both teams are giving up less than 60 points per game, and they rank first and second in the Big East in terms of field goal percentage defense. While both teams have equally impressive numbers, Louisville does have a decided edge in terms of rebounding. Led by center Gorqui Dieng, who is averaging more than 10 rebounds and almost three blocks per game, the Cardinals have dominated in the paint. Louisville ranks ninth in the country in rebounding, and in a game where points could be tough to come by, limiting second-chance opportunities could be crucial. The Hoyas could be looking at a lot of one-and-dones on the offensive end.

Of course, one of Georgetown’s strengths is its offensive efficiency. The Hoyas are patient, move the ball well, and get high-percentage looks. Not surprisingly, the Hoyas rank in the top 25 in the country, connecting on nearly 49 percent of their attempts. Guard Jason Clark and forward Hollis Thompson have done a lot of the damage, averaging 15.7 and 14.9 points per game, respectively. Meanwhile, the Cardinals shoot less the 45 percent from the field. If the game becomes a half-court defensive struggle, Georgetown’s ability to get quality shots could make a big difference.

A key matchup in the game will be Georgetown center Henry Sims versus Dieng. Dieng has established himself as one of the top big men in the Big East, but Sims has steadily improved throughout the early portion of the year, especially on offense. If Sims can dominate the glass on the defensive end and keep Dieng from getting easy baskets in the post, the Cardinals will be forced to become a perimeter-oriented team. While guard Louisville guard Kyle Kuric is a capable scorer, the Cardinals want to run their offense from the inside out and not vice versa.

 An X-factor in the game could be Louisville point guard Peyton Siva. He has been in and out of Pitino’s dog house throughout his career, and Siva runs as hot and cold as any player in the country. He is capable of taking over a game with both his scoring and his passing, but he is also notorious for turning the ball over and making poor decisions. When Siva plays well, the Cardinals are tough to beat. If he struggles, they have serious issues on the offensive end.

In the end, this matchup has trap game written all over it for Louisville. With the Wildcats waiting this weekend, staying focused on the Hoyas is going to be tough. Meanwhile, Georgetown is red hot and can use this game to make a statement to a national audience. The Hoyas should be able to keep Dieng in check in the post, and they have enough offensive weapons to get the job done in what should be a low-scoring contest.

Prediction: Georgetown Hoyas (+5 ½) Cover the Spread

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Basketball season for daily Free College Basketball Picks and Vegas College Basketball Lines plus daily updated Men’s 2012 National Championship Futures Odds.