ACC/Big Ten Challenge College Basketball Picks: Duke @ Ohio State Odds, Free Picks and Predictions

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Duke Blue Devils @ Ohio State Buckeyes 2011 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN Tuesday 11/29/11: The ACC/Big Ten Challenge has produced some memorable matchups in the past, but Tuesday night’s installment may be the best yet. The high-profile matchup has the third-ranked Duke Blue Devils (7-0) traveling to Columbus to face the second-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0), and the winner will make a serious early statement to the rest of the college basketball world. There is no shortage of talent on either side, but with the Buckeyes having the home crowd on their side, they are 5 ½-point favorites.

Even though the 2011-12 season is young, Ohio State and Duke have already flexed their muscles. The Buckeyes knocked off the ninth-ranked Florida Gators two weeks ago, and the Blue Devils took out 15th-ranked Michigan and 14th-ranked Kansas on their way to another Maui Invitational title. Both sides have players and coaches that have been a part of pressure-packed games in the past, and neither team is going to be intimidated when the game tips off Tuesday night.

For the Buckeyes, the key to the game will be establishing center Jared Sullinger. Ohio State runs its offense from the inside out, and Sullinger is the centerpiece. He is a double-double machine, and was an All-American as a freshman last season. Sullinger is picking up where he left off, and when he is scoring consistently in the post, he opens up the perimeter for guard William Buford and the rest of the Buckeyes’ 3-point shooters. If Sullinger controls the paint and gets the Duke big men in foul trouble, the Blue Devils will have a tough time winning.

While Sullinger will be the most talented player on the court, the Blue Devils do have a trio of big bodies that can cover the standout sophomore. Miles Plumlee, Mason Plumlee and Ryan Kelly all stand at least 6-10, and by rotating coverage, Duke should have a legitimate chance to limit Sullinger’s effectiveness. If there is a question mark about the big man, it has been his conditioning and athleticism. If the Blue Devils wear down Sullinger, the advantage swings heavily to Duke’s corner.

In contrast to the Buckeyes’ offense, the Blue Devils are more of a perimeter scoring team. Duke guards Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins and star freshman Austin Rivers all average double figures in scoring, producing nearly 40 points per game combined. Curry has been particularly impressive, leading the team in scoring and connecting on 57 percent of his 3-point attempts. When Duke’s guards are knocking down shots, it spreads the floor and creates easy offensive rebound and scoring opportunities for the past players.

The X-factor could be Ohio State guard Aaron Craft. What he lacks in size, he makes up for in hustle. Craft does a little bit of everything, and in addition to leading the Buckeyes in assists, he is also an excellent defender. Craft has a knack for forcing turnovers, and he will likely matchup against Curry most of the night. If he is able to shutdown the Blue Devils’ leading scorer, the Duke offense could struggle.

While the edge in star power definitely goes to the Buckeyes, the depth of the Blue Devils will be crucial. Duke has enough quality big men to at least control the damage Sullinger will inflict, and if the game becomes a perimeter battle, the Blue Devils have the better weapons. Both sides are too efficient on offense and too stingy on defense for this game to become a blowout, and in a matchup that should be decided by the final few possessions, taking a Duke team that is getting points is hard to pass up.

Prediction: Duke Blue Devils (+5 ½) Cover the Spread

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