2014 Sweet 16 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Matchup Previews

2014 Sweet 16 Odds, Free Picks and Predictions: Midwest Region Sweet 16 Matchup Previews: Coming into the NCAA tournament, the Midwest Region was tabbed as the toughest and deepest. Part of the reason was the questionable seeding of some strong teams, and while there were several upsets based on the seeding, 11th-seeded Tennessee is the only real surprise in the Sweet 16. After all, the other three remaining teams include defending national champion Louisville, last year’s runner-up for the national title Michigan and this year’s preseason No. 1 team Kentucky. Needless to say, the Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament Bracket remains loaded, and whichever teams advances on to Arlington is going to have to earn it. The action begins Friday night in Indianapolis.

2014 Sweet 16 Midwest Region Matchup Previews

No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Louisville: While it might not quite on the same level as the Final Four meeting between these in-state rivals a couple of years ago, Friday’s showdown between Kentucky and Louisville is going to be something special. After all, it is a battle between the last two national champions, and while the Wildcats have a bunch of five-star freshmen, the Cardinals have the experience. Meanwhile, these two fanbases don’t like each other, and opposing coaches Rick Pitino and John Calipari don’t like each other. Honestly, the state of Kentucky might as well shut down once this game tips off.

The game is actually a rematch of a December 28 meeting that Kentucky won on its home court. All three of Kentucky’s starting guards scored in double figures, and forward Julius Randle dominated the paint. Louisville guards Russ Smith and Chris Jones also had big games, but with almost zero production from its frontcourt, the Cardinals fell 73-66. The Wildcats also controlled the glass in the victory, going plus-8 on the boards and hauling in 17 offensive boards.

Considering Kentucky is easily playing its best basketball of the season, it would be easy to assume that the Wildcats will take down the Cardinals for a second time Friday. However, there are few key differences in the rematch. For one, Kentucky won’t be on its home court where it lost just two games all season. Perhaps more importantly, Louisville has gotten a lot stronger in the frontcourt since the first meeting. The Cardinals got rid of a big distraction by releasing forward Chane Behanan, and in his absence, Montrezl Harrell has used the added playing time to blossom into a double-double machine. Harrell took just two shots in the first meeting with Kentucky, but he has scored in double figures in the last 11 games leading up to Friday’s rematch. When you add the fortified frontcourt to the fact that Louisville has a big edge tournament experience, the Cardinals will be able to flip the script this weekend and knock off the Wildcats.

2014 Sweet 16 Midwest Region Projected Winner: Louisville

No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Michigan: This game is a matchup between a Tennessee team that I predicted to make some noise in the tournament and a Michigan team I expected to falter because of a lack of size inside. Not only have both teams reached the Sweet 16, but both have yet to face real challenge. That should change Friday when two of the tournament’s most impressive teams thus far square off.

For the Volunteers, a suddenly potent offense has fueled the run. Guards Josh Richardson and Jordan McRae and big man Jarnell Stokes have all played well for a Tennessee team averaging 84.5 points per game. Michigan on the other hand has been relying on a balanced scoring attack and excellent defense during its run to the Sweet 16. The Wolverines are allowing just 52.5 points per game, and Nik Stauskas and Glen Robinson III are two of the four players averaging in double figures.

Looking at the stat sheet, the battle on the glass could be a big factor. After all, Tennessee ranks in the top 20 nationally in rebounding while Michigan ranks outside the top 300. However, the Wolverines have shown all season that their advantage on the perimeter more than makes up for the lack of size. That fact was on full display when the Wolverines made a Texas team with a ton of size look slow and confused on both ends of the court in the Round of 32. While I fully expect Stokes to have a big game for the Volunteers in this one, it don’t see Tennessee as a whole being able to handle Michigan’s speed and pressure defense.

2014 Sweet 16 Midwest Region Projected Winner: Michigan

2014 Sweet 16 Midwest Region Favorite to Make the Final Four

Louisville: Although the road to a second straight national title is far from ideal, the Cardinals to have the ideal pieces in place to emerge from the Midwest Region and challenge for another championship. They have a go-to scorer in Smith, another quality ball-handler in Jones, a sharpshooter in Luke Hancock and an athletic post presence in Harrell. Having Pitino on the sidelines doesn’t hurt either. At the end of the day, it is all about balance, and Louisville ranks eighth in the country in scoring and 14th in fewest points allowed. The Cardinals can win a slow-paced defensive war, and they can out-gun an opponent in an up-tempo shootout. Throw in the fact that they have been playing their best basketball in the last month of the season, and they are well-equipped to navigate the loaded Midwest Region.

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