2014 Kentucky vs Uconn National Title Game Odds, Predictions and Free Picks

2014 Kentucky vs Uconn National Title Game Odds, Predictions and Free Picks: Last season, neither Kentucky nor Connecticut made the NCAA tournament. Monday night, the two teams will play for the national title. The seventh-seeded Huskies and eighth-seeded Wildcats have both defied the odds to reach the title game, and in fact, they have set a record for the highest combination of seeds to reach the title game. Meanwhile, Kentucky would tie the record held by Villanova for the highest seed to win the NCAA tournament while Connecticut would become the second-highest seed to do so. Heading into the matchup, the Wildcats are 3-point favorites.

To say that Kentucky’s run to the title game has been exciting would be a major understatement. The Wildcats have won every game by five points or less, winning the last two games on 3-pointers in the final seconds. Along the way, power forward Julius Randle has led a bruising frontcourt, and Aaron Harrison has been the star of the backcourt, drilling a seemingly-endless number of clutch jumpers. Meanwhile, on a team loaded with five-star freshmen, sophomore forward Alex Poythress has also provided huge minutes off the bench. After struggling with chemistry all year, Kentucky has picked the perfect time to figure things out.

During its journey to the final game, Connecticut has looked nothing like the team that got crushed by Louisville in the finals of the AAC tournament. Shabazz Napier, Ryan Boatright and DeAndre Daniels have been a three-headed monster, torching opponents from the 3-point line and the free throw line while applying relentless ball pressure on the defensive end.  Granted, the Huskies are small inside, but after handling Michigan State’s big frontcourt in the Elite Eight and snapping Florida’s 30-game winning streak in the Final Four, it is clear that a lack of size isn’t slowing them down. Plain and simple, Connecticut is firing on all cylinders on both ends of the court right now.

The Wildcats Win If:

If the Wildcats are going to win their second national title in three years, they have to exploit their size advantage inside. Whether Kentucky is feeding the ball to Randle and others for quality looks or simply grabbing offensive boards to extend possessions, playing through the post and punishing the Huskies with a physical attack is a must. The Wildcats’ guards can also get involved by driving into the lane and forcing UConn’s big men to rotate to help, opening up even more offensive rebound opportunities. Defensively, Kentucky has to be able to keep Connecticut’s guards out of the lane without fouling, and the Wildcats have to stay disciplined on the perimeter to avoid giving the hot-shooting Huskies any open looks from beyond the arc.

The Huskies Win If:

For the Huskies to win their fourth national title since 1999, they have to neutralize Kentucky’s size advantage by applying tremendous pressure on the Wildcats’ guards. If UConn can force the Wildcats to start their offense further away from the hoop than they want, entry passes will be tougher and Randle and the other Kentucky big men won’t get the ball in good position. Equally as important, Connecticut has to keep Kentucky off the offensive glass as much as possible. It does no good to force tough shots if the Wildcats simply grab the rebound and stick it back in for an easy hoop. Offensively, the Huskies have to continue to attack the rim to get the foul line and to create kick-out opportunities for open 3-pointers. If Connecticut can disrupt Kentucky’s guards on a routine basis and win the 3-point and free-throw differentials, the Huskies can win this game.

Bottom Line:

In many ways, the Huskies are similar to the Michigan team that Kentucky beat to reach the Final Four. After all, the Wolverines were an undersized team that relied heavily on 3-point shooting and used speed on the perimeter to disrupt opposing offenses. The Wildcats got all they could handle from Michigan, and while it took a late jumper to seal the win, Kentucky was plus-11 on the glass and also had a huge edge in points in the paint. The Wildcats should enjoy similar advantages in this matchup, and while Napier and company are shooting well enough to put points on the board, it is going to be tough to overcome the consistent quality looks that Kentucky should be able to get. Not to mention the fact that the Huskies’ ball pressure won’t be as effective against Kentucky’s larger guards. UConn will make it interesting, but Kentucky’s size will be too much in the end.

Prediction: Kentucky Wildcats (-3) Cover the Spread

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