2014 Final Four Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – Uconn vs Florida Preview

2014 Final Four Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – Uconn vs Florida Preview: In the last 10 years, there have only been three teams to win multiple NCAA tournament titles. Two of those programs will face off in the Final Four when the top-seeded Florida Gators meet the seventh-seeded Connecticut Huskies meet in a national semifinal matchup Saturday. The Gators roll into the matchup having won 30 straight games, but ironically, their last lost came at the hands of the Huskies on December 2. That being said, Florida is a 6.5-point favorite in the rematch.

Strong backcourt play and versatility have fueled the Huskies’ run to Arlington. Connecticut relied heavily on its offense in its first three games of the NCAA Tournament, averaging 82.3 points per game. However, the Huskies were able to outlast Michigan State in a defensive battle in the Elite Eight, knocking off the Spartans 60-54. Point guard Shabazz Nabier has shouldered much of the load, averaging 23.3 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. Fellow guard Ryan Boatright and forward DeAndre Daniels have also provided plenty of offensive support, and as a team, the Huskies are knocking down 8.5 3-pointers per game during the NCAA tournament.

The Gators have looked the part of a top seed throughout the NCAA tournament, winning every game by double figures. Senior point guard Scottie Wilbekin has led the way, committing just two turnovers while knocking down a variety of clutch shots. Shooting guard Michael Frazier II has chipped in with 15 3-pointers in Florida’s four wins, and big man Patric Young has been a physical force on both ends of the court. Meanwhile, Florida’s defense has lived up to its reputation, allowing just 55 points per game. In short, the Gators have been the complete basketball team

The Huskies Win If:

If the Huskies are going to knock off the Gators for a second time, they need to match Florida’s intensity on the defensive end. The Gators’ defense is one of the best in the country, and it doesn’t take games off. Connecticut can’t afford to let Florida have it easy on the offensive end and hope to win this game. Offensively, it all starts with Napier. If he has a big game, the Huskies’ chances of winning increase drastically. A few early baskets for Napier would be particularly helpful because if Florida has to commit multiple defenders to slowing him down, Daniels, Boatright and the rest of the Huskies are going to get quality looks. In the end, Connecticut just wants to keep this game close with smart offense and strong defense in order to give Napier a chance to win the game in the final minutes.

The Gators Win If:

For the Gators to win the game, they have to slow down Napier and force the Huskies to get a bulk of their offense from other sources. At the very least, Florida has to make the UConn point guard take a lot of shots in order to get his points. The Gators also need to take advantage of their size and length inside to control the glass on both ends. Limiting the Huskies to one shot while getting a couple of second chances for themselves could make a huge difference for the Gators over the course of the game. Offensively, Florida has to utilize its multiple weapons to attack the Connecticut defense in a variety of ways. Wilbekin, Frazier, Young, Casey Prather, Kasey Hill and Dorian Finney-Smith can all make an impact, and if the Gators make the Huskies defend every player on the court, they should get enough quality looks to support their always-stout defense.

Bottom Line:

When these two teams met in December, a big effort from Napier allowed the Huskies to survive a balanced effort from the Gators. He scored a game-high 26 points, including the game-winning 3-pointer as time expired. In the game, Florida won the battle on the boards and got to the foul line more often, but UConn’s 11 3-pointers were the equalizer. It is hard to see much changing this time around in terms of the style of the game. Florida is still the more balanced team with an edge inside, and Napier and the Huskies enter the game on fire from the perimeter. Throw in the fact that UConn just proved it defense can rise to the occasion in its win over Michigan State, and another lower-scoring, close game seems likely. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Gators come out on top in the rematch, but I like the Huskies with the points.

Prediction: Connecticut Huskies (+6.5) Cover the Spread

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