2014 Final Four Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – Kentucky vs Wisconsin Preview

2014 Final Four Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – Final Four Betting Preview: As the second-seeded Wisconsin Badgers and eighth-seeded Kentucky Wildcats prepare to meet in their national semifinal matchup Saturday, there is no doubt that both teams have already defied the odds just to reach the Final Four. After all, the Badgers had never made the Final Four under coach Bo Ryan, who had developed a reputation for leading his teams to great regular seasons but early tournament exits. The Wildcats on the other hand struggled to find chemistry all season, losing 10 games after opening the year ranked No. 1 in the country. Now, one of these teams will be playing for a national title, and while Wisconsin will be trying to become the first Big Ten team since 2000 to win it all, the Wildcats will be trying to become only the second No. 8 seed to win the title. Kentucky enters the matchup as a 2-point favorite.

It is hard to believe that the same Kentucky team that lost to South Carolina on March 1 is in the Final Four. The Wildcats have won four games by a combined 17 points, and their last three victories have come against teams that played in the Final Four last season. Along the way, the Wildcats survived a back-and-forth nail-biter against undefeated Wichita State, rallied late to knock of defending national champion and in-state rival Louisville and hit 3-pointer in the final seconds to oust second-seeded Michigan. Forward Julius Randle has been a steady force inside, averaging 13.3 points and 12.0 rebounds and collecting double-doubles in all four games. Meanwhile, point guard Aaron Harrison has been brilliant, averaging 16.0 points and knocking down 13 3-pointers.

The Badgers have displayed plenty of versatility during their run to the Final Four. After using a new-and-improved offense to reach the Sweet 16, they relied on a defensive-minded approach in a dominating 69-52 victory against Baylor and in a thrilling 64-63 overtime win over top-seeded Arizona. Junior forward Frank Kaminsky has been a star for Wisconsin, averaging 22.0 points in the team’s last three games and scoring 28 in the overtime win against the Arizona. Meanwhile, senior guard Ben Brust has provided plenty of perimeter firepower, hitting 16 3-pointers in four games, while junior guard Traevon Jackson has been steady, averaging 12.8 points per game.

The Wildcats Win If:

For the Wildcats to win the game, they will have to continue to get solid play on the perimeter. Not only will Kentucky’s young guards have to keep turnovers to a minimum, but they will have to use their size to penetrate into the lane to create open looks from the perimeter and scoring opportunities around the rim for Randle and the other bigs. If the Wildcats allow the Badgers to pack the paint and simply try to shoot jump shots all game, they are going to be in trouble. Defensively, Kentucky has to remain disciplined when it comes to guarding the 3-point line. Wisconsin is going to spread the floor with its skilled big men, and if the Wildcats aren’t focused, the Badgers are going to find driving lines or open shooters on a regular basis.

The Badgers Win If:

If Wisconsin is going to knock of Kentucky, the Badgers have to neutralize the Wildcats’ interior game. Kentucky is at its best when its big men are getting touches in the post and its guards are penetrating into the lane. If the Badgers can keep the Kentucky guards in front of them on a consistent basis, it will allow Wisconsin to stack the paint and turn the Wildcats into mainly a jump-shooting team. Offensively, the Badgers need to use their balanced, versatile cast of players to keep Kentucky guessing. With big men like Kaminsky and Josh Gasser that can play inside or outside and guards that can attack the rim or knock down perimeter shots, the Badgers have a lot of weapons. They just need to remain patient and work to get quality lots.

Bottom Line:

In their Elite Eight victory over Arizona, the Badgers showed they are capable of competing with and beating a team that possesses elite athleticism. However, the Wildcats not only bring great athleticism to the table, but they also bring a variety of offensive firepower, including great size in their backcourt. The Badgers should be able to hold their own on the glass and against Randle, but Wisconsin is going to have a hard time staying in front of the Harrison twins on a consistent basis. In what will almost-certainly be a physical, half-court game, Kentucky’s newfound chemistry will be huge. The Wildcats’ great individual playmakers are now using their abilities to create opportunities for each other, and Kentucky will be able to grind out enough baskets to win this game.

Prediction: Kentucky Wildcats (-2) Cover the Spread

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