2014 Elite Eight South Region Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – NCAA Tournament Betting

2014 Elite Eight South Region Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – NCAA Tournament Betting: It will be the ultimate battle of David versus Goliath in the South Region Final of the NCAA Tournament Bracket when the top-ranked and top-seeded Florida Gators meet the 11th-seeded Dayton Flyers in an Elite Eight matchup Saturday in Memphis. The game will be the fourth straight Elite Eight appearance for the Gators while the Flyers will be making their first trip to a regional final since 1984. Experience is certainly on Florida’s side, but anything can happen in a one-and-done setting. The game tips off Saturday night with Florida currently listed as a 10-point favorite.

Dayton’s run to the Elite Eight started with a bang and hasn’t slowed down. The Flyers got a runner from Vee Sanford in the final seconds to knock off Ohio State 6-59 in the Round of 64, and they followed it up by surviving a furious rally from Syracuse in the Round of 32 that ended when Orange point guard Tyler Ennis missed a potential game-winning 3-pointer as time expired. There was less drama in their Sweet 16 matchup as the Flyers overwhelmed Stanford to reach the Elite Eight. Guard Jordan Sibert and forward Devin Oliver have led the way, but Dayton is a deep team that has been firing on all cylinders throughout the NCAA tournament.

Florida has won all three of its game by double digits during the NCAA tournament, but it hasn’t been a walk in the park for the Gators. They got a bit of a scare from 16th-seeded Albany before putting away the Great Danes late, and while they controlled Pittsburgh in the Round of 32, they allowed UCLA to climb within a point late in the second half before finally putting away the Bruins. As has been the case most of the year, Florida’s stingy defense has been a constant while different players have stepped up on the offensive end, including point guard Scottie Wilbiken and shooting guard Michael Frazier II.

The Flyers Win If:

For Dayton to upset the top-ranked Gators, the Flyers have to make them defend all five positions on the court. Teamwork and chemistry have gotten the Flyers this far, and the last thing they want to do is start to play hero ball and try to do much as individual now that a Final Four berth is within reach. Even a great defense can’t blanket every player on every possession, and if Dayton consistently makes the extra pass to find the open man, the Flyers should be able to generate some solid scoring chances. Dayton will also want to push the tempo whenever possible because it is a lot easier to score against Florida in transition than after the Gators get set. Keeping Patric Young and Florida’s other big men off the offensive glass will also be critical, but whether or not the Flyers can remain balanced and cohesive, especially on the offense end, will be the ultimate determining factor.

The Gators Win If:

If the Gators are going to get over the hump and finally return to the Final Four, they have to control the pace of the game with their defense and size up front. Sure, Florida has the offensive weapons to get up and down the court, but a high-scoring shootout doesn’t play to the Gators’ strengths. Instead, Florida needs to be patient on the offensive end, making sure to get quality looks and preventing the Flyers from getting out in transition off of bad shots and turnovers. Florida needs to make Dayton have to score in the half court against a set defense as much as possible, and the Gators need to own the glass. If the Gators make sure this game comes down to which team can get the most stops on defense, they should be in the driver’s seat.

Bottom Line:

Perhaps one of the most-impressive things about Dayton’s run to the Elite Eight has been the team’s ability to win both when the Flyers have controlled the tempo and when the games have been played at the opponent’s pace. The Flyers grinded out victories in defensive battles with Ohio State and Syracuse and then neutralized Stanford’s size advantage by running the Cardinal off the court. The problem Dayton could run into against the Gators is that in addition to being able to play excellent defense a la the Buckeyes and Orange, they can also score the ball fairly efficiently. The versatile and deep Flyers won’t make it easy, and while Florida’s balance should be enough to carry the Gators through to Arlington, Dayton should make it interesting until the end.

Prediction: Dayton Flyers (+10) Cover the Spread

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