2014 Elite Eight Midwest Region Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – NCAA Tournament Betting

2014 Elite Eight Midwest Region Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – NCAA Tournament Betting: Fresh off thrilling victories in the Sweet 16, the second-seeded Michigan Wolverines will battle the eighth-seeded Kentucky Wildcats for a spot in the Final Four when the two teams meet in the Midwest Region final Sunday in Indianapolis. Michigan was runner-up for the national title last season while Kentucky won the national title two years, but despite the recent tournament success for both programs, both sides have a new cast of characters leading the way this time around. Of course, only one team is going to emerge from arguably the toughest region in this year’s bracket, and heading into the game, the Wildcats are 2-point favorites.

It has been a rollercoaster ride for Kentucky this year. Armed with six McDonald’s All-Americans, the Wildcats started the year ranked No.1 in the country, only to finish a distant second in the SEC with a 24-10 record. However, the young Wildcats have picked the perfect time to mature, winning a defensive battle in the Round of 64 against Kansas State and surviving absolute thrillers against top-seeded and undefeated Wichita State and defending national champion Louisville to reach the Elite Eight. Forward Julius Randle has been a steady inside force along the way while guards James Young, Andrew Harrison and Aaron Harrison have all been playing their best basketball of the season in March.

Michigan was supposed to be good this year, but after losing center Mitch McGary to injury and point guard Trey Buke to the NBA, not many people were expecting the Wolverines to cruise to the Big Ten crown and No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament. However, Michigan’s guard-heavy lineup led by sharpshooter Nik Stauskas has given teams fits, and the Wolverines overall speed and perimeter firepower has made them a matchup nightmare. In fact, Michigan cruised through its first two tournament games and was on its way to a another comfortable win in the Sweet 16 before a furious rally by Tennessee forced the Wolverines to make a late defensive stand to advance.

The Wildcats Win If:

For Kentucky to advance to the Final Four, the Wildcats have to play at a controlled pace on the offensive end and take advantage of their huge size advantage. Even if center Willie Cauley-Stein is unable to play because of an ankle injury, Kentucky still has Randle, Dakari Johnson and Alex Poythress in the frontcourt. Facing a Michigan team that ranks outside the top 300 in rebounding, the Wildcats need to pound the ball into the post for quality looks, and they need to own the glass on both ends of the court. Defensively, Kentucky’s guards have to defend the perimeter as much as possible, running Michigan’s shooters off of 3-point shots and forcing them to try to score in the paint. If Kentucky can avoid getting into a up-tempo game with the speedy Wolverines, the Wildcats should be to use their size to wear down Michigan and win the game.

The Wolverines Win If:

If the Wolverines are going to return to the Final Four for the second year in a row, they need to neutralize Kentucky’s size advantage by speeding up the pace on offense and clamping down on Kentucky’s young guards on the defensive end. Consistent pressure on Kentucky’s guards will potentially lead to turnovers, and more importantly, it could force the Wildcats to speed up their pace instead of taking the time to work the ball into the post. Offensively, Michigan needs to establish a quick pace in order to avoid facing a set Kentucky defense. When the Wolverines are forced to run offense in the half court, they need to be able to get dribble penetration and then kick the ball out to open shooters. If the Wolverines are hitting their 3-pointers and can bait the Wildcats into trying to keep up with them offensively, they should march on to Arlington.

Bottom Line:

Michigan has already faced opponents with powerful frontcourts during their run to Elite Eight, and both Texas and Tennessee were unable to use their size advantage to get past the Wolverines. That being said, the Wildcats are a little different than either the Longhorns or the Volunteers. Kentucky’s big men are not only tall and strong, but they are also athletic and will be able to handle the speed that the Wolverines bring to the table. More importantly, Kentucky’s guards are big and athletic and should be able to bother Michigan’s shooters a bit and handle the pressure the Wolverines try to put on them defensively. In the end, Kentucky’s combination of size and athleticism will be able to derail the hot-shooting Wolverines.

Prediction: Kentucky Wildcats (-2) Cover the Spread

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