2014 Elite Eight East Region Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – NCAA Tournament Betting

2014 Elite Eight East Region Odds, Predictions and Free Picks – NCAA Tournament Betting: Two of top programs in recent decades will meet in an Elite Eight showdown when the fourth-seeded Michigan State Spartans take on the seventh-seeded Connecticut Huskies in the East Region final Sunday in New York. Under coach Tom Izzo, the Spartans have reached the Final Four six teams since 1999, winning the national title in 200. During the same stretch, the Huskies have made four appearances in the Final Four while collecting three national titles, albeit with Jim Calhoun calling the shots and not current coach Kevin Ollie. Of course, only one program will get to bolster its resume with a trip to Arlington, and the Spartans enter the matchup as 5.5-point favorites.

After averaging just 71.9 points per game during the year, the Huskies’ offense has come to life just in time for the NCAA tournament. Connecticut is averaging 82.3 points per game in its three victories, outlasting Saint Joseph’s in overtime in the Round of 64 and then out-gunning Villanova and Iowa State to reach the Elite Eight. Dynamic point guard Shabazz Napier has led the way, but fellow guard Ryan Boatright and versatile swingman DeAndre Daniels have come up big, as well.

Finally back at full strength, Michigan State has showcased its versatility in March. After winning the Big Ten tournament, the Spartans let their offense do the talking in in the first two games of the NCAA tournament as they averaged 86.5 points in victories over Delaware and Harvard. However, it was MSU’s defense that stepped up in the Sweet 16 as the Spartans grinded out a 61-59 win over top-seeded Virginia. The frontcourt of Branden Dawson and Adreian Payne has huge throughout the NCAA tournament, but guards Gary Harris and Keith Appling can also do some damage for a team that ranked sixth in the country in assists during the regular season.

The Huskies Win If:

If the Huskies are going to advance, they will have to dominate the action on the perimeter. If Napier, Boatright and Daniels are able to consistently beat their defenders off the dribble and get into the lane, they should be able to create a free-flowing pace and find solid shot opportunities for themselves and the rest of the team. The last thing that the Huskies want to do will be slow down the game and allow the Spartans to take advantage of their size on both ends of the court. Connecticut may not have an answer for Payne and Dawson defensively, but if the hot-shooting Huskies speed up the pace and turn this game into a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair, size is going to take a backseat to offensive firepower, and there isn’t a team playing better on the offensive end right now than UConn.

The Spartans Win If:

Although Michigan State has already showcased how powerful its offense can be, the Spartans need to make sure to control the pace in this matchup. With Napeir and company scorching the nets lately, trying to out-gun the Huskies could be a recipe for disaster. Fortunately for the Spartans, they have a decided edge down low with Dawson and Payne. If MSU makes sure to feed the ball to the post consistently, the Spartans should get quality looks on offense, which in turn will allow them to set their defense and slow Connecticut’s transition game. On the defensive end, Michigan State’s guards have to take away driving lanes as much as possible and run the Huskies’ shooters off the 3-point line and into the long arms of Payne and Dawson in the paint. Michigan State’s advantage in this matchup is their frontcourt, and if the Spartans exploit it, they should win.

Bottom Line:

While a team that is shooting as well as Connecticut is always dangerous, it’s tough to ignore the balance of Michigan State. They have a pair of athletic big man that can score, defend and rebound in Payne and Dawson, an explosive scorer on the wing in Gary Harris and an experienced point guard in Keith Appling. Keep in mind that the Spartans at full strength have been pretty good this year. In addition to reaching the Elite Eight, MSU knocked off Michigan and Wisconsin to win the Big Ten conference tournament, and all those teams have done since is reach the Elite Eight, as well. More importantly, MSU knows how to use its balance to attack the weak points of an opponent, and in this matchup, the Huskies are going to have a tough time finding an answer for the combo of Payne and Dawson.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-5.5) Cover the Spread

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