2014 College Basketball Picks: Cincinnati @ Louisville – Free College Basketball Picks 1/30/14

2014 College Basketball Picks: Cincinnati @ Louisville – Free College Basketball Picks 1/30/14: A pair of top-15 teams will meet Thursday when the 13th-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats (19-2, 8-0 AAC) face the 12th-ranked Louisville Cardinals (17-3, 6-1 AAC). For defending national champion Louisville a win would pull them even with the Bearcats atop the conference standings. For the Bearcats, a victory would continue what has been a breakout season for the program and give them a two-game lead on the rest of the AAC. Cincinnati enters the matchup riding a 12-game winning streak, but the Cardinals are 9 ½-point favorites on their home court.

Cincinnati’s success this season has been directly tied to the team’s stellar defensive play. The Bearcats are currently allowing the fifth-fewest points in the country, and they have allowed just one opponent to reach 70 points. Big men Justin Jackson and Titus Rubles have been excellent at protecting, combining for 4.4 blocks per game. Cincinnati as a team ranks in the top 15 nationally in blocks per game. On the flip side, the Bearcats aren’t a pretty offensive team. Guard Sean Kilpatrick leads the team in scoring at 19.1 points per game, and Jackson is the only other player averaging double figures. As a team, Cincinnati is shooting just 43.1 percent from the field this year.

The Cardinals have been one of the more balanced teams in the country this season, ranking 13th in points per game and 21st in fewest points allowed. Guard Russ Smith is the leading scorer for an offense that is averaging 83.1 points per game and has five players averaging double figures. Louisville has plenty of long-range firepower with five players having already hit at least 20 3-pointers. Defensively, the Cardinals have been excellent at generating turnovers, and as a team, they are averaging more than 10 steals per game. That being said, Louisville is undersized inside, especially since forward Chane Behanan was kicked off the team.

The Bearcats Win If:

If Cincinnati is going to win the game, they have to control the pace and prevent the Cardinals from making this a fast-paced shootout. The Bearcats simply don’t have the firepower to keep pace with Louisville in a high-scoring affair, and they need to do everything they can to make sure the game is played mainly in the half court. Offensively, Cincinnati cannot afford to turn the ball over and allow the Cardinals to get out in transition. The Bearcats also need to work the ball inside early and often, taking advantage of Louisville’s lack of size to get quality looks. Overall, the more times Cincinnati makes Louisville have to score against a set defense, the better off the Bearcats are. If Cincinnati can turn the game into a physical, defensive battle, the Bearcats can pull off the upset.

The Cardinals Win If:

Controlling the tempo will go a long way to putting the Cardinals in the driver’s seat in this matchup. Cincinnati is going to want a low-scoring, defensive-minded game, and while Louisville has a solid defense, their edge in this matchup comes on the offensive end. The Cardinals are a much better offensive team than the Bearcats, and if they force Cincinnati to try to keep pace in a high-scoring game, the Bearcats are going to have major problems. Defensively, the Cardinals need to pressure the Cincinnati guards into making mistakes and taking bad shots in order to fuel their transition game. If Louisville can get in the open court and get quick, open looks early in possessions, it is going to neutralize the Bearcats’ shot-blockers. If the Cardinals approach their scoring average of 83.1 points, they are going to be in great shape.

Bottom Line:

While there is no question that Louisville has a clear edge in offensive firepower, Cincinnati’s defense is legit. During the Bearcats’ 12-game winning streak, only one team has topped 70 points and only three teams have scored 60 or more points. Meanwhile, the Cardinals offense has been a little inconsistent against tougher competition. In fact, Louisville is 0-3 this year against ranked opponents, scoring just 66 points in a loss to Kentucky and 67 points in a loss to Memphis. Cincinnati’s defense will easily be the toughest the Cardinals have faced this year, and while playing at home should help the cause, the Bearcats should be able to keep the score in check. I expect a tight, lower-scoring game similar to Louisville’s games against the Wildcats and Tigers. With Cincinnati getting 9 ½ points, the Bearcats should be able to cover.

Prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats (+9 ½) Cover the Spread

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