2014 Bracketology Picks & Predictions: Top National Title Sleepers

2014 Bracketology Picks & Predictions: Top National Title Sleepers: Sleeper picks are all the rage in the NCAA tournament, and while several surprise teams and lower seeds have reached the Final Four in recent years, winning the national title has been largely reserved for the higher seeds. In fact, every champion since 1989 has been seeded fourth or better, and all but one champion during the stretch was seeded third or better. Since seeding for the NCAA tournament began in 1979, no team seeded worse than eighth has ever won the national title. The bottom line is that picking a sleeper to win it all is a little different than picking a sleeper to win a region. With that in mind, here is a closer look at four teams with longer odds that could end up going on a run and winning the 2014 NCAA tournament.

Syracuse Orange (20/1): A 2-5 finish to the season has the Orange looking vulnerable, but the late-season slide isn’t totally uncommon for Jim Boeheim’s teams. Conference opponents that have had a chance to see Syracuse’s 2-3 zone first hand tend to fare better against the defense the second time around. Throw in a shooting slump for C.J. Fair and Tevor Cooney, and you have a recipe for a slump. However, the Orange won’t face an ACC team in the NCAA Tournament until the Elite Eight at the earliest, and that would require ninth-seeded Pittsburgh to advance that far, as well. Throw in a week off for Syracuse’s shooters to rest and recharge, and the Orange could look an awful lot like the team that started 25-0 this season. Don’t rule out a run at the national title.

Iowa State Cyclones (28/1): Of the top 12 seeds in this year’s NCAA Tournament, the third-seeded Cyclones out of the East Region of the NCAA Bracket have the longest odds to win it all. A shaky defense that has been downright nonexistent at times is the likely reason that the Cyclones have longer odds than the other top seeds, but they also have as much offensive firepower as any team in the country. Iowa State rolls into the NCAA tournament with the sixth-best scoring offense and is leading the country in assists. In Melvin Ejim, DeAndre Kahne and Georges Niang, the Cyclones have three players averaging more than 16 points per game, and all three ca carry the scoring load. Meanwhile, all seven players in the regular rotation have knocked down at least 20 3-pointers this year. When the Cyclones are rolling on offense, they are tough to beat. Heck, they just cruised to the Big 12 tournament title, averaging 86.3 points per game along the way. If Iowa State keeps the momentum going, the Cyclones could run and gun their way to a national title on the back of championship-caliber offense.

Kentucky Wildcats (33/1): Talk of a 40-0 season quickly vanished, and the preseason No. 1 team had an up-and-down season, finishing with a 24-10 record. As a result, the Wildcats were are a No. 8 seed in a loaded Midwest Region of the NCAA Tournament Bracket, and while their road to a title is tough, there is no denying the talent level of the young Wildcats. More importantly, something seemed to click for Kentucky during the SEC tournament, and after lacking chemistry and trust nearly all season, the Wildcats looked cohesive on both ends of the court as they reached the conference tournament title game and gave top-ranked Florida their toughest test in months before losing 61-60. Meanwhile, six of their 10 losses this year did come to ranked opponents with four coming by five points or less. With Julius Randle and Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky has plenty of size and muscle inside, and James Young and the Harrison twins give them athleticism and firepower on the perimeter. The Wildcats know they can salvage a disappointing season by making a run in the tournament, and they have the talent to beat any team in the country.

North Carolina Tar Heels (40/1): North Carolina has been one of the most unpredictable teams in the country all year. On one hand, they lost out-of-conference games to Belmont and UAB and weren’t even competitive against ACC top dogs Syracuse and Virginia. On the flip side, the Tar Heels have beaten Kentucky, Michigan State and Louisville out of conference and Duke in ACC play. Clearly, North Carolina’s best is good enough to beat just about any team in the country, and with point guard Marcus Paige and forward James Michael McAdoo, they have a dynamic inside/outside scoring combo. Sure, the Tar Heels could get bounced at just about any point, but they could also go on a run. After all, this is a team that has knocked off several big time opponents and went on a 12-0 run in the middle of ACC play. In North Carolina, bettors are at least getting a team that they know can beat the best in the country, and despite the threat of the Tar Heels laying an egg, their upside isn’t bad at their 40/1 odds.

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