2013 NCAA Bracket Picks and Predictions: Top Value Bet from each Region

2013 NCAA Bracket Picks and Predictions: Top Value Bet from each Region: While history says that the eventual national champion is going to come from a team seeded fourth or better in the NCAA Bracket, all bets have been off when it comes to regional champions lately. George Mason, VCU and Butler are some of the more notable Cinderella stories that have crashed the Final Four since 2006. Needless to say, bettors can make a lot of money if they bet on team that becomes the next longshot to reach the national semifinals. With that in mind, here is a look at one team from each region of the NCAA Bracket that could go all the way to Atlanta and deliver a big pay day to bettors in the process.

Midwest Region: Michigan State Spartans (20/1)

The Midwest Region of the NCAA Bracket is loaded so at their 20/1 odds, the third-seeded Spartans qualify as a value pick. Michigan State plays a punishing, physical style on both ends of the court, and Tom Izzo makes sure his team does the little things it takes to win close games. The Spartans’ stingy defense is allowing less than 60 points per game, their offense ranks in the top 50 nationally in field goal percentage, and they take care of business on the boards and in the paint thanks to a pair of true post players in the frontcourt. Michigan State should cruise into the Sweet 16, and although Duke will likely be waiting, the Spartans’ physical play is exactly what gives the perimeter-oriented Blue Devils the most trouble. Izzo prepared his team for the NCAA Tournament with a schedule that included 12 games against teams ranked in the 25. The Spartans know how to control the pace of games and how to win tight games, and they play the type of grinding style needed to survive a region with so many tough teams.

West Region: Pittsburgh Panthers (33/1)

Had a couple of close games gone in their favor, the Panthers would likely be at least a No. 4 seed. Instead, they are the No. 8 seed in the West Region of the NCAA Bracket, but I’m not sure any potential opponent was happy to see them. After all, Pittsburgh’s defense is elite, and the Panthers are allowing less than 56 points per game. Meanwhile, their offense ranks in the top 20 in field goal percentage, and the Panthers’ ability to get quality shots on a routine basis allows them to set up their suffocating defense a majority of the time. Last but not least, Pittsburgh has an excellent floor general in Tray Woodall and size inside with Talib Zanna and Steven Adams. During the regular season, the Panthers knocked off Syracuse and clobbered Georgetown, and they went on the road and lost to Louisville by just three points. In a region loaded with fellow defensive-minded teams like Wichita State, Wisconsin, Kansas State and Ohio State, the Panthers’ style matches up well. A potential meeting with top-seeded Gonzaga in the round of 32 will be crucial, but if the Panthers can slow the pace the way Butler did when they knocked off the Bulldogs, Pittsburgh could spring the upset and be on their way to a surprise run to Atlanata.

South Region: VCU Rams (50/1)

In 2011, the Rams were one of the darlings of the NCAA Tournament, making it all the way to the Final Four before falling to fellow Cinderella Butler. This year, VCU won’t be sneaking up on anyone as a No. 5 seed, but that doesn’t mean the Rams can’t make another run to the Final Four. After all, VCU has a lot of perimeter firepower and currently ranks 11th in the country in scoring, putting up 78.0 points per game. Meanwhile, the Rams play a ridiculous style of defense that features full-court pressure and forces a ton of turnovers. VCU pushes the tempo on both ends of the court and often gets it opponents to play outside of their comfort zone. In a region where top-seeded Kansas and No. 2 seed Georgetown both have issues scoring at times and both have question marks at the point guard spot, the Rams are a potential giant killer. Fourth-seeded Michigan could be in the same boat as the Rams wear down Trey Burke with their pressure defense and slice through Michigan’s porous defense. Watch out for VCU in the South Region of the NCAA Bracket.

East Region: North Carolina State Wolfpack (66/1)

There isn’t a team in the country that has underwhelmed and disappointed more than North Carolina State. The Wolfpack added three McDonald’s All-Americans to a roster that reached the Sweet 16 last year, but instead of competing for an ACC title, they had an average season and ended up as an the No. 8 seed in the East Region of the NCAA Bracket. Still, the talent level on this team is off the charts, especially on the offensive end. In fact, the Wolfpack rank 13th in the country in scoring and fifth in field goal percentage. They also have a big, powerful frontcourt with players like C.J. Leslie, T.J. Warren and Richard Howell and a quality point guard in Lorenzo Brown. Granted, focus on the defensive end has been horrible, but there is always a chance that the pressure that comes with the one-and-done format of the NCAA Tournament will bring out the intensity that this team has been lacking all year. With their trio of quality big men, N.C. State could give top-seeded Indiana fits in the round of 32, and there really isn’t any team in the region that can match up with the Wolfpack’s interior size. There is still time for this team to live up to expectations.

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