2013 NCAA Bracket Picks and Predictions: Top National Title Sleepers

2013 NCAA Bracket Picks & Predictions: Top National Title Sleepers: While there have been a lot of surprise teams to reach the Final Four in recent years, the list of national title winners contains a much more exclusive group. A team seeded fourth or better has won the NCAA Tournament in every year dating back to 1989, and all but one team during the stretch was seeded third or better. Going back even further to when seeding began in 1979, no team seeded worse than eighth has been crowned the national champ. In other words, your idea of a potential sleeper to win the national title needs to be a little different than your idea for a sleeper to win their region. With that in mind, here is a look at a few teams that could not only make it to the Final Four in Atlanta but could be the last team standing, as well.

Ohio State Buckeyes (16/1): Of the top eight seeds in this year’s NCAA Tournament, the second-seeded Buckeyes out of the West Region of the NCAA Bracket have the second-longest odds to win it all. In some ways, that makes sense given the team’s reliance on forward Deshaun Thomas for a majority of its scoring. At times during the regular season, Ohio State was simply no match for tougher competition or struggled late in games as Thomas became tired from shouldering so much of the offensive load. However, the Buckeyes have been a different team down the stretch thanks to Aaron Craft’s aggressiveness on the offensive end and Thad Matta’s willingness to rely on his bench more. The change in philosophy has OSU on an eight-game winning streak, and during the stretch, the Buckeyes have knocked off the likes of Indiana, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Keep in mind that this is still the same team that has had an elite defense all season, and lately, OSU has had an offense to support it. As long as the Buckeyes don’t revert to their early season style of play, there is no reason they can’t keep right on winning until they are the last team standing.

Michigan State Spartans (20/1): Although they are just the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Region of the NCAA Bracket, there is a certain comfort level that comes with the Spartans. After all, picking Tom Izzo’s team basically gives you a 50 percent chance to reach the elite eight and a 42 percent chance to reach the Final Four based on the coaches past success in the NCAA Tournament. Those aren’t terrible odds to start with when looking for a potential national title winner. More importantly, Michigan State has all the elements a team needs to make a run in March. They have experience in the backcourt with point guard Keith Appling, size in the frontcourt with Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix and a pair of explosive young players in Gary Harris and Branden Dawson. Meanwhile, the Spartans’ defense allows less than 60 points per game, they rebound well, and they play some of the most physical basketball of any team in the country on both ends of the court. On the flip side, MSU doesn’t have a lot of perimeter firepower or a lot of depth. Still, the Spartans are built to grind out close games and score and defend well in the half court. The style of play that Izzo demands makes his team a threat to make a run just about every year.

St. Louis Billikens (22/1): While former NCAA Tournament Cinderella stories Butler and VCU have been getting a lot of attention as potential sleepers for this year’s Big Dance, the fourth-seeded Billikens out of the Midwest Region could be the team to target. After all, St. Louis won the Atlantic 10 regular season and tournament title, and the Billikens have won 15 of their last 16 games overall. During the stretch, St. Louis has knocked of VCU twice and Butler three times, and this team also owns an out-of-conference win over New Mexico. The Billikens play excellent defense and are allowing just 58.1 point per game on the year. They also have six players they can turn to for offense, and more importantly, they can score from in the post or the perimeter. With a 5-1 record against teams ranked in the top 25 this season, balance on both ends of the court and one heck of a motivating factor, the Billikens could make a legitimate run at the title.

Syracuse Orange (25/1): Granted, the Orange didn’t play all that well down the stretch of the regular season, but don’t forget that this team did beat Georgetown in the Big East Tournament and went to Louisville during the regular season and won. Overall, the fourth-seeded Orange out of the East Region have a 6-5 record against teams ranked in the top 25, but any team that went on the road and knocked of the NCAA Tournament’s No. 1 overall seed can’t be totally dismissed. Syracuse still has its patented 2-3 zone, and the defensive scheme tends to be a lot more effective against out-of-conference teams that aren’t as familiar with it. Just for the record, the first chance for the Orange to face a Big East team would come in the Elite Eight. Meanwhile, this year’s team had more scoring ability than a typical Syracuse squad with explosive point guard Michael Carter-Williams’ game changing skills and James Southerland’s 3-point prowess. In the end, the Orange have to find some consistency on the offensive end in order to make a run, but Syracuse does have the talent to win a national title.

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