2013 Final Four Picks and Predictions: Wichita St vs Louisville Odds and Predictions – Free Final Four Picks

2013 Final Four Picks and Predictions: Wichita State vs Louisville Odds and Predictions – Free Final Four Picks 4/6/2013: A big part of what makes the NCAA Tournament one of the most popular sporting events in the country is the David versus Goliath element, and Saturday’s Final Four matchup between ninth-seeded Wichita State and top-seeded Louisville is a perfect example of just that. The Cardinals are the No. 1 overall seed in the entire field, and they are playing in the national semifinals for the second year in a row. On the flip side, the Shockers are trying to become the lowest seed to ever win the NCAA Tournament and are making their first Final Four appearance since 1965 when the field had yet to expand to 68 or even 64 teams. Of course, only one team will still be standing after Saturday, and the Cardinals enter the showdown as a hefty 10 ½-point favorite.

While the Shockers have been given the Cinderella label because of their seeding, they haven’t exactly played like an underdog. Wichita State has defeated opponents by an average of more than 11 points, and even in their closer games against Gonzaga and Ohio State, the Shockers were the team in command for a majority of the time, even building a 20-point lead against the Buckeyes. The Shockers aren’t a particularly deep team, but everyone that does play gives maximum effort on the defensive end. Wichita State also has size inside and is usually able to win the battle on the boards. In general, the Shockers do the little things a team needs to do to win games, and the little things have been adding up to big results during the NCAA Tournament.

During their run to the Final Four, the Cardinals have looked every bit the No. 1 overall team in this year’s NCAA Tournament, winning their four games by an average of 21.8 points. Not to mention the fact that Louisville has a 14-game winning streak overall, and before the Cardinals run in the NCAA Tournament began, they beat a Final Four team in Syracuse in the Big East Tournament title game by 17 points. Rick Pitino’s bunch has been on a tear with guard Russ Smith carrying a suddenly-explosive offense and everyone that takes the court playing nasty defense. The gruesome leg injury to Kevin Ware was a sobering moment and does affect the Cardinals’ depth, but this team has been playing like a well-oiled machine for the past two months.

The Shockers Win If:

If the Shockers are going to continue their run and pull off their biggest upset to date, they will have to take care of the basketball on the offensive end to prevent the Cardinals from parlaying turnovers into easy points. Wichita State actually has a tough defense in its own right, and if the Shockers can at least make Louisville have to work for all its point in half-court sets, they will take away a degree of the Cardinals’ explosiveness. In addition, Wichita State will need to continue to win a majority of the hustle categories. Going into the teeth of the Cardinals’ defense will be difficult, but if the Shockers can get some points in transition, some on second-chance opportunities and some from beyond the arc, the end result will be a respectable point total. The Shockers probably don’t have the depth or firepower to keep up with Louisville in a fast-paced game, but if they can take care of the ball and create a low-scoring, defensive-minded battle, they can make enough hustle plays to pull out a win.

The Cardinals Win If:

Louisville might be the best team in the country when it comes to creating turnovers and turning them into quick offense. If the Cardinals pressure the Wichita State guards into frequent mistakes, they are going to be able to establish their up-tempo pace and wear out a Shockers’ team that plays just six players a majority of the game. In addition, Louisville can take away one of Wichita State’s best offensive weapons if Chane Behanan, Gorgui Dieng and the other Cardinals’ big men can keep the Shockers off the offensive glass. On the offensive end, Louisville should be primed for a strong showing if Smith and fellow guard Peyton Siva outplay the Wichita State backcourt. In the end, the Cardinals will be in the driver seat if their backcourt pressures the Shockers into mistakes while limiting Wichita State’s points in the hustle categories. Louisville is the more explosive offensive team, and they need to create a tempo that takes advantage of it.

Bottom Line:

The Cardinals are a tough matchup for any opponent, especially Wichita State. After all, the Shockers generate a lot of their offense on second-chance points and from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Louisville’s athletic guards are able to pressure opposing perimeters shooters with aggressive, physical defense while Dieng and the other big men are able to keep teams off the offensive glass. Essentially, Wichita State has been beating teams with its energy and hustle, but they are about to  come up against a Cardinals’ bunch that is rarely outworked and prides itself on hustling just as much. As a result, this game is likely going to come down to which team’s playmakers can get the job done, and Louisville simply has more players capable of delivering the individual efforts to put the Cardinals over the top. That being said, I don’t expect the Shockers to go down without a fight. Wichita State’s intensity on defense and ability to take care of business on the boards will at least make Louisville work for its win. The Shockers’ magical run will come to an end, but they will be able to hang within the double-digit point spread.

Prediction: Wichita State Shockers (+10 ½) Cover the Spread

Wichita State vs Louisville
Line: Louisville -10
Total: 132.5
Time: 6:09 PM EST on CBS

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