2013 Elite Eight Picks and Predictions: West Regional Final Wichita St vs Ohio St Odds and Free Picks

2013 Elite Eight Picks and Predictions: Wichita St vs Ohio St Odds and Predictions – Free Elite 8 Picks 3/30/2013: The West Region of the NCAA Bracket has been chalked full of surprises, producing an Elite Eight matchup between the ninth-seeded Wichita State and second-seeded Ohio State Saturday. Ironically, it is the Shockers that have cruised to the regional final with a 12.7 margin of victory in their first three games while the Buckeyes have needed a pair of last-second 3-pointers to survive. That being said, the Ohio State is still a 4 ½-point favorite as the Buckeyes look to dispatch the upstart Shockers and make their second consecutive trip to the Final Four.

For much of the year, the Shockers relied mainly on their hard-nosed, stingy defense and on their ability to control the boards. However, Wichita State’s offense has evolved during the season, and it seems to be peaking at the perfect team. Case in point, the Shockers have topped the 70-point mark in all three NCAA Tournament games despite averaging less than 70 during the regular season. More importantly, the Shockers are dominating the hustle categories, killing opponents on second-chance points and point off turnovers. Not to mention the fact that Wichita State’s usually streaky 3-point shooters have been dialed in during the Big Dance has transformed this defensive-minded team into an all-around force.

Of course, the Buckeyes have grown as a team, as well. For much of the year, Ohio State lived and died with the play of star forward Deshaun Thomas, and the lack of a secondary option caused the Buckeyes to lose seven of their first eight games against ranked opponents. However, something changed after OSU got rocked by Wisconsin. Point guard Aaron Craft began attacking he rim more, LaQuinton Ross became more assertive, and Thad Matte began trusting his young bunch with more minutes. The result has been an 11-game winning streak that has included four wins versus ranked opponents, and while Thomas has still been the offensive star, other players continue to step up. In fact, Craft and Ross were responsible for the two game-winning baskets the Buckeyes have had during the NCAA Tournament.

The Shockers Win If:

While shutting down Thomas would be nice, the OSU star is too versatile and too persistent on the offensive end to be taken out of the game completely. However, the Shockers can still put themselves in position to win if they use their stingy defense to shut down all of the other Buckeyes’ scorers, forcing OSU to revert to the team that couldn’t close out big games for the first half of the year because Thomas would become worn down from carrying the scoring load. On the offensive end, forward Carl Hall and the rest of the Wichita State big men need to crash the offensive glass and create some easy second-chance points against a smaller OSU frontcourt. Not to mention the fact that if the OSU guards are forced to help on the glass, it should open up some look for the Shockers’ perimeter shooters. At the end of the day, Wichita State can continue its run if it takes care of business on the glass and from beyond the arc while its defense makes the Buckeyes’ offense a one-man show.

The Buckeyes Win If:

Balance has fueled the Buckeyes’ hot streak, and it is going to determine whether or not they march on to Atlanta. Wichita State’s defense is stout, but if the Shockers are forced to respect Thomas, Craft, Ross and others, Ohio State is going to get some open looks and be able to put up some points. On the defensive end, the Buckeyes have to maintain their solid perimeter defense to take away the 3-point shot from the Shockers, but they also have to hold their own on the boards. In general, the Buckeyes need to take away as many easy scoring opportunities for the Shockers as possible, and if they force Wichita State to have to manufacture a majority of their offense through half-court sets, That Matta’s bunch will be in great shape.

Bottom Line:

Both of these teams have well-coached, athletic defenses, and although both have been playing well on the offensive end of late, there is a good chance that baskets are going to be tough to come by. As a result, easy baskets could end up being the tipping points, and the Shockers could have an edge in the category thanks to their size inside. After all, Iowa State nearly knocked off the Buckeyes in the Round of 32 by destroying OSU on the offensive glass, getting extra possessions and easy second-chance points. Like the Cyclones, the Shockers can do some damage on the offensive glass and knock down 3-pointers. The biggest difference is that Wichita State also brings a top notch defense the table. In the end, the defensive mentalities of both teams are going to make this a game a grinding, back-and-forth affair that is decided by a few shots and a few plays. The Buckeyes have dodged two bullets thus far, and while they might do it again, Wichita State will at least make it a nail-biter if they don’t advance.

Prediction: Wichita State Shockers (+4 ½) Cover the Spread

Wichita St vs Ohio St
Line: Ohio St -4.5
Total: 131
Time: 7:05 PM EST on CBS

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