2013 College Basketball Picks: Minnesota @ Illinois Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Minnesota @ Illinois Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 1/9/2013: A pair of upstarts in the Big Ten will go head to head Wednesday when the eighth-ranked Minnesota Golden Gophers (14-1, 2-0 Big Ten) go on the road to face the 12th-ranked Illinois Fighting Illini (14-2, 1-1 Big Ten). Since losing to top-ranked Duke, the Golden Gophers have reeled off 10 straight wins, knocking of perennial conference power Michigan State along the way. Meanwhile, the Fighting Illini have accumulated an impressive hit list that includes Gonzaga, Butler and Ohio State. With both teams overachieving in the early going, Wednesday’s winner is going to be in an even better position to make a run at a conference title. Riding their winning streak, the Golden Gophers are 1 ½-point favorites.

Minnesota has been rock solid across the board this season. The Golden Gophers rank in the top 50 in scoring, the top 20 in rebounding, the top 30 in assists and the top 40 in field goal percentage. Guards Andre and Austin Hollins drive the up-tempo offense and provide a majority of the perimeter firepower. Meanwhile, the athletic forward Rodney Williams and big man Trevor Mbakwe provide a steady presence on the boards and in the paint on defense. Minnesota can get a little careless with the basketball, but they also create a lot of turnovers and score often in transition. Overall, the Golden Gophers have firepower in the post and on the perimeter and plenty of athleticism.

For Illinois, a potent backcourt leads an offense that ranks in the top 50 in scoring. Guard Brandon Paul leads the way, averaging 18.5 points per game. Fellow guards Tracy Abrams and D.J. Richardson are also averaging in double figures, and they are among the five Fighting Illini players that have already knocked down at least 15 3-pointers this year. The flip side of Illinois’ perimeter-based attack is a poor shooting percentage. The team also struggles on the boards at times. Overall, Illinois lives and dies with the play of its top three guards.

The Golden Gophers Win If:

Both teams can put points on the board in a hurry, but Minnesota has a big edge in side that it needs to take advantage of. If Williams and Mbakwe can consistently score against the smaller Illinois frontcourt, it is going to put a lot of pressure on the Fighting Illini shooters. If Minnesota can also use its size advantage to control the glass, the Golden Gophers are going to be in great shape. By limiting Illinois to one shot, it will expose the Fighting Illini’s often-inefficient offense and although the Golden Gophers to get out in transition. The bottom line is that Minnesota has a size advantage, and if it uses it Wednesday, the Golden Gophers should continue to roll.

The Fighting Illini Win If:

Illinois has an edge in perimeter firepower, and the Fighting Illini need to exploit it in order to take down a bigger Minnesota team. If Paul, Abrams and Richardson come out knocking down shots, it is going to set a tone for the game. If Illinois is hitting from the perimeter, it is going to pull Minnesota’s big men away from the hoop and neutralize the Golden Gophers’ edge on the boards. It could also force Minnesota to abandon its big men on the offensive end as it tries to keep pace with Illinois’ perimeter firepower. Overall, Illinois can win this game if its backcourt controls the game.

Bottom Line:

In many ways, Minnesota and Illinois are similar teams. Both have athleticism and speed and can string together points in a hurry. However, Minnesota has athleticism on the perimeter and in the post. Williams and Mbakwe present a serious matchup problem for the Fighting Illini, and Minnesota’s strength on the boards in general poses an issue for Illinois. Illinois has been masking its lack of size and post scoring by forcing opponents to match their smaller, perimeter-oriented lineup. The Golden Gophers on the other hand have athletic big men that can stay on the court without being a defensive liability. Minnesota may not quite have the 3-point firepower of Illinois, but the Golden Gophers’ edge on the boards and in the paint will win out.

Prediction: Minnesota Golden Gophers (-1 ½) Cover the Spread

Minnesota @ Illinois
Line: Minnesota -1.5
Total: Over/Under 141.5
Time: 9 PM EST on BIG

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