2013 College Basketball Picks: Louisville @ Notre Dame Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Louisville @ Notre Dame Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 2/9/2013: The Big East has been one of the power conferences in college hoops in recent years, and this season has been no exception. There are currently seven Big East teams ranked in the top 25, and two of them will go head to head Saturday when the 11th-ranked Louisville Cardinals (19-4, 7-3 Big East) travel to South Bend to face the 25th-ranked Fighting Irish (18-5, 6-4 Big East). Both teams are within striking distance of the top spot in the conference, but winning big games is a must if either hopes to emerge from the log jam that is the Big East standings. Riding a three-game winning streak, the Cardinals are 5 ½-point favorites on the road.

As with any Rick Pitino team, Louisville’s physical, pressure defense is at the heart of their success. The Cardinals have plenty of athletic defenders, and they are currently averaging 11 steals per game as a team. Meanwhile, center Gorgui Dieng is one of the best in the country at protecting the rim. Offensively, the Cardinals have been inconsistent, especially in the half court. That being said, leading-scorer Russ Smith can get points in bunches when he is hot, and point guard Peyton Siva can cause havoc with his speed and penetration. Overall, Louisville’s defense keeps them in just about every game, and the amount of support the Cardinals get from their offense decides the outcome.

Unlike the football team, Notre Dame has been winning on the hard court with offense. The Fighting Irish are one of the best teams in the country at moving the ball and getting open shots, and they currently rank fourth in assists and 11th in field goal percentage. The center of the offense has been big man Jack Cooley, who leads the team in scoring (14.8) and rebounding (11.3). His presence inside frees up shots for Notre Dame’s collection of perimeter shooters. Five players have hit at least 29 3-pointers this year, including double-digit scorers Jerian Grant and Eric Atkins. Defensively, the Fighting Irish have had their issues, but when their offense is clicking, they have scored away their other deficiencies.

The Cardinals Win If:

Louisville has one of the most physical defenses in the country, and if the Cardinals are able to disrupt the efficient Notre Dame offense, they are going to be in the driver’s seat. The Cardinals thrive when they are using their defense to create easy scoring chances on offense, and if they are able to pressure the Fighting Irish into turnovers and bad shots, they will be able to jumpstart their transition scoring attack. Strong games from Smith and Siva on both ends of the court will go a long way to helping the cause, and if Dieng controls Cooley and takes away Notre Dame’s balance on offense, Louisville’s defense will carry them to a big road win.

The Fighting Irish Win If:

If the Fighting Irish are going to knock off the Cardinals, it is going to start on the offensive end. Notre Dame has been an efficient offensive team all year, and that has to continue Saturday. Louisville’s half-court offense is sketchy, but turnovers and bad shots on the part of the Fighting Irish will give the Cardinals opportunities to get quality looks early in the shot clock. Granted, Notre Dame’s defense isn’t great, but if the Fighting Irish can make sure this game is decided by which team can execute better offensively, they should be able to outscore the inconsistent Louisville offense.

The Bottom Line:

Although Notre Dame has several players that can do damage from the perimeter, the Fighting Irish offense has been so efficient in part because of the balance Cooley provides down low. However, Louisville has an excellent frontcourt defender in Dieng that is capable of guarding Cooley one on one in the post. With Dieng taking on Cooley by himself, Louisville’s athletic perimeter defenders can focus on staying with Notre Dame’s arsenal of shooters. Meanwhile, the Fighting Irish have struggled winning lower-scoring, defensive-oriented games, and that is exactly the type of game the Cardinals will be able to turn Saturday’s meeting into. Notre Dame will hit enough shots to keep things interesting, but Louisville’s grinding style will wear down a finesse Fighting Irish bunch and win out in the long run.

Prediction: Louisville Cardinals (-5 ½) Cover the Spread

Louisville @ Notre Dame
Line: Louisville -5.5
Total: Over/Under 127
Time: 9:00 PM EST on ESPN

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