2013 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Michigan State @ Ohio State Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Michigan State @ Ohio State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 2/24/2013: It has been one of the deepest conferences in the country all year, and two of the Big Ten’s best will go head to head Sunday when the fourth-ranked Michigan State Spartans (22-5, 11-3 Big Ten) head to Columbus to face the 18th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (19-7, 9-5 Big Ten). The game is big for both sides, albeit for different reasons. Michigan State is trying to stay just a game back of Indiana in the battle for the conference crown while Ohio State is looking for another statement win to add to its tournament resume. Throw in the fact that the rivalry between the two teams has been heating up lately, and an intense matchup should be on tap. The Spartans knocked off the Buckeyes 56-53 in East Lansing earlier this year, but OSU is a 3 ½-point favorite on its home court.

Tom Izzo’s latest group has a little bit of everything. Guards Keith Appling and Gary Harris provide plenty of backcourt scoring, and both players are averaging more than 13 points per game. Meanwhile, forward Branden Dawson provides a nice combination of athleticism and perimeter shooter. Last but not least, MSU is blessed with a pair of strong big men in Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix, who are averaging a combined 19.2 points and 13.4 rebounds this season. Overall, the Spartans have a balanced offensive attack, and while they may not score a ton of points, they do shoot a high percentage and keep their turnovers to a minimum. Defensively, Michigan State isn’t afraid to physical. The Spartans usually take care of business on the glass, and they are allowing less than 60 points per game.

Ohio State’s numbers have been declining in recent weeks. The Buckeyes now rank just 95th in scoring and 76th in field goal percentage, and they are a below average rebounding team, as well. Small forward Deshaun Thomas is one of the best all-around scorers in the conference, but without another player averaging double figures, Ohio State is often left with zero balance on the offensive end. On the flip side, the Buckeyes are blessed with plenty of athletic perimeter defenders, including Aaron Craft. The point guard is average two of OSU’s eight steals per game for a defense allowing less than 60 points per game. Overall, a stingy team defense and Thomas’ offense have been carrying the Buckeyes.

The Spartans Win If:

Michigan State has more offensive weapons in this matchup, including a huge edge in frontcourt scoring. Ohio State doesn’t have a ton of size or depth inside, and the Spartans need to punish them in the post with Payne and Nix. If the Spartans are getting quality looks in the post and controlling the glass, it is not only going to put pressure on a below average OSU offense, but it will open up the perimeter for Appling and the rest of the guards. Defensively, MSU needs to make Thomas work hard for his points and try to force the Buckeyes to take as many perimeter jumpers as possible. In general, Michigan State is going to be in the driver’s seat if it can punish the Buckeyes physically on both ends of the court. This strategy should lead to easy baskets on the offense end for the Spartans while making sure Thomas will wear down as the game goes on.

The Buckeyes Win If:

First and foremost, Thomas needs to have a big game offensively. If he is dialed in and can get 20-plus points in an efficient manner, the Buckeyes will at least have a fighting chance. From there, Ohio State has to make sure the Spartans’ bigger frontcourt doesn’t dominate the glass, especially the offensive glass. The Buckeyes also need to find a way to force as many turnovers as possible in order to jumpstart their transition game and getting some easy buckets. Overall, Ohio State is going to struggle to win this game if it comes down to which team can operate the best in the half court. However, the Buckeyes have a chance to pull off an upset if a big game from Thomas is accompanied by enough hustle points and transition buckets from his supporting cast.

Bottom Line:

When Ohio State nearly pulled off the upset of Michigan State in East Lansing, Thomas had a monster game. He scored 28 points, knocking down six of his 11 attempts from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, no other player on the team scored more than six points, showcasing the lack of balance that has haunted OSU all year. Thomas basically played one of his best games of the year, and the Buckeyes still lost. They simply don’t have the size inside to match the Spartans’ physicality and don’t have enough firepower to support Thomas. Playing at home may help the Buckeyes’ role players a bit, but it isn’t going to change the fact that this game is basically going to boil down to Thomas versus Michigan State. Ohio State is just 1-7 against ranked opponents for a reason, and after Sunday, they will be 1-8.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (+3 ½) Cover the Spread

Michigan State @ Ohio State
Line: Ohio State -3.5
Total: Over/Under 130.5
Time: 4:00 PM EST on CBS

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