2013 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Michigan @ Minnesota Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Michigan @ Minnesota Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 1/17/2013: The Big Ten is emerging as the deepest conference in the country this year, and two of the top teams will go head to head Thursday when the fifth-ranked Michigan Wolverines (16-1, 3-1 Big Ten) face the ninth-ranked Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-2, 3-1 Big Ten). Both teams are part of a five-way tie between ranked teams for second place in the conference, and every win is important in such a tight race. The game is also a chance for both sides to rebound after Michigan fell to OhioState and Minnesota fell to Indiana over the weekend. In the battle of top-10 teams, the Golden Gophers are three-point favorites at home.

Michigan, point guard Trey Burke has emerged as the leader of an exciting, powerful offense. Burke is leading the team with 18.0 points and 7.1 assists per game, and he is the engine that drives an offense that ranks 14th in scoring and fourth in field goal percentage. His backcourt mate Tim Hardaway Jr. is a stout scorer in his own right, and Nik Stauskas is one of the top 3-point shooters in the conference. Michigan’s frontcourt is a little inexperienced, but freshmen Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary have already become the team’s two-best rebounders, and Robinson is averaging more than 12 points per game. Overall, there is no shortage of offensive weaponry on this team.

Minnesota’s starting five has a combination of speed and athleticism that has been giving opponents fits all year. Andre and Austin Hollins provide the perimeter scoring in the backcourt while forwards Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe form one of the toughest frontcourt duos around. While the offense has been solid and currently ranks in the top 40 nationally in scoring, Minnesota’s defense might be its biggest strength. The Golden Gophers rank second in the Big Ten in generating turnovers and 21st in the country in rebounding. As a result, Minnesota is able to produce a lot of transition scoring opportunities, and this team has the athletes to get up and down the court and take advantage of the chaos its defense can create.

The Wolverines Win If:

Both offenses can push the tempo and put points on the board, but Michigan has the offensive weapons and shooters to be the much more efficient team. It all starts with Burke, and if he is able to get into the lane and find Hardaway, Stauskas and the other Wolverines’ shooters, Michigan is going to pile up points. Not to mention the fact that if he limits his turnovers, the Golden Gophers will have fewer opportunities to get the quick scores in transition that they have relied on this year. Defensively, Michigan needs to hold its own on the glass and limit second-chance points for Minnesota, but in general, the Wolverines will be in great shape if they are taking care of the ball, getting high-percentage shots and forcing Minnesota to work for its baskets in half-court sets.

The Golden Gophers Win If:

Michigan has a lot of weapons, but the one thing it doesn’t have is a lot of experience and depth in the frontcourt. With two physical, talented big men in Mbakwe and Williams, Minnesota has an edge inside. If the Golden Gophers are able to get a lot of easy scores in the paint, it will allow them to control the tempo and offset the efficiency of the Michigan offense. Defensively, the Golden Gophers need to try to find a way to slow down Burke. OhioState’s Aaron Craft did just that, and the Michigan offense stalled as a result. If Minnesota can find a way to do the same, the Golden Gophers can turn their defense into some offense by taking advantage of an out-of-sync Wolverines’ offense

The Bottom Line:

Although Minnesota made a late rally to make the score respectable in its loss to Indiana, the Hoosiers were able to build a 23-point lead when they had their offense rolling. Not to mention the fact that the Golden Gophers’ other loss came to a Duke team that has an efficient, high-scoring offense. Minnesota relies heavily on its overall speed and athleticism to generate turnovers and hustle points, and when opponents are getting quality looks and limiting turnovers, those easy scoring chances aren’t available. With one of the best point guards in the country running the show, Michigan should be able to run efficient, mistake-free offense for the most part. Meanwhile, the Golden Gophers’ size advantage is somewhat limited by the teams up-tempo style. Minnesota likes to push the pace and score points, but the Golden Gophers aren’t going to be able to keep pace with a Michigan offense that has just as much speed and even more perimeter firepower.

Prediction: Michigan Wolverines (+3) Cover the Spread

Michigan @ Minnesota
Line: Ohio St -2
Total: Over/Under 140
Time: 7:00 PM EST on ESPN

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