2013 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Miami-Fl @ Duke Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Miami-Fl @ Duke Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 3/2/2013: A pair of top five teams are set to do battle Saturday when the fifth-ranked Miami Hurricanes (23-4, 14-1 ACC) travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face the third-ranked Duke Blue Devils (24-4, 11-4 ACC). The game lust a little bit of its luster when the Blue Devils suffered an unexpected loss to Virginia Thursday night, but there is still plenty on the line. For one, Miami can clinch the conference title outright with a victory. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils are trying to avenge an ugly 90-63 loss to the Hurricanes in late January. Throw in the fact that both teams are in the thick of the conversation for a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, and Saturday’s meeting won’t be lacking in intensity on either side. Despite getting smashed in Miami a little more than a month ago, the Blue Devils are 6 ½-point favorites at home.

Miami’s unexpected rise to the top of the ACC has been be triggered by a relentless attitude on the defensive end and well-rounded offensive attack. The Hurricanes aren’t a high-scoring team at less than 70 points per game, but they have been winning a majority of their games comfortably by holding opponents to less than 60 points per game. A dynamic backcourt of Shane Larkin and Durand Scott heads the scoring attack, combining to average 26.5 points per game. Versatile forward Kenny Kadji is also chipping in 13.0 points per game while Reggie Johnson and Julian Gamble provide size and muscle inside, averaging a combined 12.9 rebounds and 3.2 blocks per game. The Hurricanes have an active defense and size, athleticism and speed. There is a reason they are 14-1 in the ACC.

The Blue Devils have once again been led by a high-scoring, perimeter-oriented offense, and they currently rank in the top 10 in the country in scoring and in the top 25 in field goal percentage. Sharpshooter Seth Curry is one of five players averaging more than 12 points per game, and while a majority of Duke’s scoring comes from its backcourt, center Mason Plumlee has manned the middle to the tune of 17.3 points and 10.5 rebounds per game. That being said, Duke is a little thin in the frontcourt because of an injury to forward Ryan Kelly, who ranks third on the team in scoring. The Blue Devils have more than held their own without their skilled big man thanks to all their offensive firepower, but Kelly’s absence has left Duke a little soft in the middle on defense and at a disadvantage on the glass, especially against bigger, physical teams.

The Hurricanes Win If:

It all starts on the defensive end for the Hurricanes. Miami harassed and pressured the Duke perimeter shooters in the first meeting between the teams, holding the Blue Devils to just 29.7 percent shooting. More importantly, Duke made only four of its 27 attempts from beyond the arc. If the Hurricanes take away the 3-point shot Saturday, Duke’s offense is again going to struggle. On the offensive end, the Hurricanes need to be in attack mode from the opening tip. Miami bullied Duke physically the first time around, attempting 27 free throws and shooting 56.9 percent from the field. If the Hurricanes contesting the Duke shooters and are attacking the rim and getting quality look after quality look, Miami will be in the driver’s seat once again.

The Blue Devils Win If:

The Blue Devils have to find a way to match Miami’s intensity and physicality after essentially being run out of the gym in the first meeting. If Duke’s guards are able to keep Miami’s backcourt from penetrating into the lane, it will go a long way to stifling the Hurricanes’ offense. For his part, Plumlee has to make sure Miami doesn’t dominate on the offensive glass. When the Blue Devils have the ball, they need to give the Hurricanes a taste of their own medicine and attack the rim. If Duke’s guards can get into the paint, it will open up the perimeter looks that drive the Blue Devils’ offense. Plain and simple, Duke had to take way to many tough shots in the first game and didn’t make Miami take enough. If the Blue Devils flip the script in the rematch and start knocking down 3-pointers, it will be Miami that struggles to keep up.

Bottom Line:

It is a bit of an understatement to say the Hurricanes controlled the tempo in the January meeting. Miami went on a 25-1 run early in the first half, and the game was essentially over. That being said, lackluster performances on the road have been somewhat commonplace for the Blue Devils, and in fact, all four of their losses have come away from Cameron Indoor Stadium. More importantly, Duke is two-for-two in avenging road losses this year, beating North Carolina State and Maryland by an average of 16.5 points. Miami beat up Duke physically and mentally in the first game, but the Hurricanes are going to have a tough time repeating the feat with the Cameron Crazies going nuts. Don’t get me wrong, the Hurricanes’ size and athleticism is a matchup problem for the Blue Devils, but they are undefeated at home for a reason. Playing in their comfort zone, the Duke shooters won’t be anywhere near as terrible as they were in their ugly loss in January, and while the Hurricanes will keep it close, the Blue Devils will hit enough shots to come away with the win and cover the spread.

Prediction: Duke Blue Devils (-6 ½) Cover the Spread

Miami-Fl @ Duke
Line: Duke -6.5
Total: Over/Under 135.5
Time: 6:00 PM EST on ESPN

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