2013 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Indiana @ Michigan St Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Indiana @ Michigan State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 2/19/2013: Sole possession of the top spot in the Big Ten will be on the line when the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers (23-3, 11-2 Big Ten) travel to East Lansing Tuesday night to face the fourth-ranked Michigan State Spartans (22-4, 11-2 Big Ten). Not only will the winning team control its own destiny in the battle for the conference title, but with Selection Sunday less than a month away, a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament could be hanging in the balance, as well. After all, the team that ends up winning the loaded Big Ten is going to have a resume that looks pretty darn good to the selection committee. The game is also a rematch of an earlier meeting that the Hoosiers won 75-70 in Bloomington. However, the Spartans are the home team this time around and are 1 ½-point favorites.

Entering Tuesday’s game, Indiana’s high-powered offense ranks second in the country in scoring and fourth in field goal percentage. Wooden Award candidates Tyler Zeller and Victor Oladipo are among the five players averaging double figures for a Hoosiers’ group that can score from the post, from beyond the arc and in transition. However, IU’s powerful offense might not be at full strength Tuesday because of an ankle injury suffered by Oladipo. He is expected to play, but the Hoosiers’ second-leading scorer and their most-athletic defender won’t be at 100 percent. In fact, Oladipo’s presence could actually be missed the most on the defensive end considering he is averaging a team-high 2.3 steals per game for a defense that is focused more on creating turnovers than it is locking down opponents in the half court.

Like most Tom Izzo teams, this year’s Spartans look a lot better in the win/loss column than they statistically. Michigan State plays a very physical style on both ends of the court, and the Spartans force opponents into tough shots while generaly getting quality looks of their own. In fact, Michigan State ranks 33rd in the country in field goal percentage and is averaging over eight steals per game. Offensively, the backcourt led by senior point guard Keith Appling carries the load. Appling leads the team in scoring at more than 14 per game while freshman shooting guard Gary Harris and sophomore swingman Branden Dawson are both scoring in double figures, as well. Inside, Michigan State is blessed with two big men that can wear down opponents and get them in foul trouble. Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix are averaging 19.0 points and 13.5 rebounds combined, and both players are hitting well over 50 percent of their shots.

The Hoosiers Win If:

Regardless of whether or not Oladipo plays, the Hoosiers need to use their offense to keep the pressure on the Spartans. If the Hoosiers can keep the game moving at a quicker pace and make it a relatively high-scoring affair, it will neutralize several of MSU’s biggest strengths and everything else will fall into place. The Spartans won’t be able to wear out the Hoosiers on either end of the court if both sides are taking quick shots, and a faster pace should provide the Indiana defense with more opportunities to create turnovers and jumpstart its deadly fast break. If Indiana is scoring early and often and can make sure the Spartans have to score 70-plus points in order to win, the Hoosiers can ride their offense to a season sweep of MSU and sole possession of the top spot in the Big Ten.

The Spartans Win If:

The last thing Michigan State wants is to get into a shootout with the Hoosiers. The Spartans are at their best when they are punishing opponents with physical play on both ends of the court, and if they can impose their tempo on the game, they can slow down and knock of Indiana. In particular, MSU needs to pound the ball inside on offense to force Zeller to work on the defensive end. Playing through the post will also help the Spartans get high quality shots and limit turnovers, making it harder for the Hoosiers to get their transition game going. If Michigan State makes sure this game is decided by which team can play better in the half court on both ends, the Spartans can grind out another win.

Bottom Line:

When these two teams met in late January, the Spartans failed in basically every area where they normally excel. They had 19 turnovers, allowed the Hoosiers to shoot better than 50 percent from the field and only managed to break even on the glass. On the plus side, Michigan State failed in all those areas and still managed to keep the game close. More importantly, Indiana’s offense hasn’t been quite as sharp on the road in conference play as the Hoosiers managed just 69 and 67 points in wins against Iowa and Northwestern. Meanwhile, the Spartans have yet to lose at home this year and have won 33 of their last 34 home games overall. Given MSU’s success at home and Indiana’s numbers on the road, Izzo’s bunch will have a much better chance of controlling the tempo and imposing its physical style of play this time around. Throw in the fact that Oladipo will either be out or at the very least less than 100 percent, and Michigan State will be able to outmuscle the high-scoring Hoosiers and remain perfect at home.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-1 ½) Cover the Spread

Indiana @ Michigan State
Line: Michigan St -2
Total: Over/Under 140.5
Time: 7:00 PM EST on ESPN

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