2013 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Georgetown @ Syracuse Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Georgetown @ Syracuse Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 2/23/2013: There is currently a three-way tie for the top spot in the loaded Big East, but that will change Saturday when the 11th-ranked Georgetown Hoyas (204, 10-3 Big East) go on the road to face the eighth-ranked Syracuse Orange (22-, 10-3 Big East). The winner of the game will ensure itself a share of the conference lead and could own the lead outright depending on the outcome of the Marquette game scheduled for later the same day. The red hot Hoyas bring an eight-game winning streak into the matchup, but the Orange have ripped of 38 consecutive wins at home. Something has to give Saturday, and Syracuse is 6 ½-point favorite on its home court.

As they have for the past several seasons, the Hoyas have been winning thanks to a stout defense and a Princeton-style offense that controls the tempo of games. Entering Saturday’s conference clash, Georgetown is holding opponents to less than 57 points per game while averaging more than eight steals. Offensively, the Hoyas rank well outside the top 200 in scoring at just over 65 points per game, but they do rank in the top 40 nationally in field goal percentage. Of course, those numbers are par for the course with the style of offense this team runs. When Georgetown does need a big basket, it usually turns to forward Otto Porter Jr. The sophomore leads the team in scoring (15.1) and rebounding (7.7) and is also averaging more than a block and steal per game. Overall seven players see significant minutes for the Hoyas, but Porter is one of only three players scoring in double figures.

Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim has won games with a lot of different personnel over the years, and this year’s team is led by a trio of athletic guards. Brandon Triche, C.J. Fair and Michael Carter-Williams are all average more than 12 points per game. All three are aggressive and can get to the rim, but it is Carter-Williams in particular that makes the offense flow. He is currently among the best distributors in the country and is currently averaging 8.2 assists per game. Forward James Southerland is the only big man scoring in double figures for Syracuse, and he is also the top perimeter shooter on an otherwise below average 3-point shooting team. Overall, the Syracuse offense ranks 31st in the country in scoring at more than 75 points per game, but the Orange don’t shoot a great percentage as a team. Defensively, the Orange create plenty of turnovers, and their 2-3 zone is holding opponents to just under 60 points per game.

The Hoyas Win If:

While Syracuse is effective on offense, the Orange are not a particularly strong perimeter shooting team. If the Hoyas can keep Syracuse’s trio of athletic guards from getting to the rim and to the foul line, Georgetown can severely limit the effectiveness of the Orange’s offense. In particular, the Hoyas need to make Carter-Williams more of a jump shooter than a distributor. When they have the ball on offense, the Hoyas need to focus on getting quality shots and limiting turnovers. If Georgetown limits the chances Syracuse has to get easy baskets in transition, the Hoyas are going to frustrate the Orange’s offense even further. In general, the Hoyas win this game by playing smart on the offensive end and by forcing Syracuse to be a half court, jump shooting team.

The Orange Win If:

Plain and simple, Syracuse needs to use its athletic guards to push the tempo and attack the Georgetown defense. Triche, Fair and Carter-Williams have all attempted more than 100 free throws this season, and if they live at the foul line Saturday, they are going to get the Hoyas in foul trouble and loosen up Georgetown’s stout defense. Defensively, Syracuse needs generate the turnovers that have been jumpstarting its offense all year. The Hoyas have a way of controlling tempo of games with their Princeton-style offense, but the Orange can get them out of their comfort zone by forcing steals and other mistakes with their 2-3 zone. Syracuse could get into trouble if this game is played at a grinding, half court pace, but if the Orange force the Hoyas’ offense to try to keep pace in a high-scoring game, Carter-Williams and company will run Georgetown out of the Carrier Dome.

Bottom Line:

The pace of the game is going to be crucial in the matchup, and in that respect, the fact that Syracuse is going to be playing at home can’t be overlooked. After all the Orange have been a much more potent offensive team at home thanks in large part to the crowd noise helping them create the turnovers that feed their transition game. Meanwhile, Georgetown has had some shaky showings on the road against some mediocre competition, and the Hoyas even lost to a 10-16 South Florida team, giving the Bulls their only conference win to date. Playing in the comfort of the Carrier Dome, the Orange are going to be aggressive on offense and will be in attack mode from the opening tip. Georgetown has a strong defense in its own right, but part of the Hoyas’ defense prowess stems from their ability to control the pace of the game on offense. Syracuse isn’t going to let that happen on its home court, and Georgetown doesn’t have the firepower to keep pace with Carter-Williams and company when they are clicking on offense. The Orange have reeled of 38 straight wins at home for a reason, and they will remind the Hoyas of that Saturday.

Georgetown @ Syracuse
Line: Syracuse -7
Total: Over/Under 124
Time: 4:00 PM EST on CBS

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Prediction: Syracuse Orange (-6 ½) Cover the Spread