2013 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Duke @ NC State Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Duke @ NC State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 1/12/2013: A pair of ACC juggernauts will go head to Saturday afternoon when the top-ranked Duke Blue Devils (15-0, 2-0 ACC) go on the road to face the 20th-ranked North Carolina State Wolfpack (13-2, 2-0 ACC). The winner will have early control of the conference, and while the Blue Devils are undefeated, the Wolfpack have reeled off nine straight wins in their own right. Both teams are hot and both have plenty of talented players at their disposal. Not surprisingly, oddsmakers are expecting a close one with the top-ranked Blue Devils favored by 3 ½ points.

A high-scoring and surprisingly efficient offense has helped Duke start the year 15-0. Five players are currently averaging more than 11 points per game, and Duke is 18th in the country in scoring. Four of those players have also knocked down more than 20 3-pointers on the year, including guard Seth Curry, who is averaging 16.0 points per game. Despite the perimeter-oriented attack, the Blue Devils rank in the top 25 in field goal percentage thanks in large part to center Mason Plumlee. He leads the team in scoring at 17.7 points per game and rebounding at 11.4 points per game while shooting an impressive 61.6 percent from the floor. Defensively, Duke has been solid, allowing less than 61 points per game.

Offensive firepower isn’t an issue for North Carolina State. The Wolfpack enter Saturday’s showdown eighth in the country in scoring at 81.3 points per game. Six players are averaging in double figures, and five are averaging more than 12 points per game. A loaded frontcourt of C.J. Leslie, Richard Howell and T.J. Warren provide plenty of inside scoring while point guard Lorenzo Brown and swingman Rodney Purvis provide a presence on the perimeter. Overall, North Carolina State is the top team in the country in terms of field goal percentage, shooting 53.0 percent as a team. On the flip side, the high-powered offense has come at the expense of the defense, and the Wolfpack are allowing almost 70 points per game to opponents.

The Blue Devils Win If:

North Carolina State is the bigger team overall, but Duke can neutralize the size disadvantage by spreading out the Wolfpack with Curry and the rest of their perimeter shooters. If the Blue Devils are able to use their speed to create open looks and get North Carolina State’s post players in foul trouble, Duke should have a big scoring effort. Defensively, Plumlee has to hold his own on the glass and make sure the Wolfpack’s big men don’t feast on second-chance points. If Plumlee can provide enough of an interior presence to allow Duke to stick with its smaller lineup, the Blue Devils’ guards should be able to carve up North Carolina State defense that has been slow to cover shooters all season.

The Wolfpack Win If:

Duke is going to try to spread out the Wolfpack with its smaller lineup, and North Carolina State needs to make the Blue Devils pay. Plumlee can only guard one player at a time, and whichever player has the best matchup advantage out of Leslie, Warren and Howell needs to have a big game. If the Wolfpack are consistently getting easy baskets in the paint, the Blue Devils are going to be forced to abandon their smaller lineup and play North Carolina State’s style. Defensively, the Wolfpack have to close out on the perimeter to prevent the Blue Devils’ shooters from having wide-open looks. More importantly, Leslie and the rest of the North Carolina State frontcourt have to stay out of trouble on the defensive end in order to make an impact on the offensive side. In the end, the Wolfpack win this game if their frontcourt dominates on the offensive end by getting consistent baskets around the rim.

Bottom Line:

As powerful as the North Carolina State offense has been, the Wolfpack’s suspect defense is tough to ignore. In this matchup against a perimeter-oriented team like Duke, North Carolina State’s slow rotations are only going to become more glaring. Giving up open looks to the Blue Devils is a recipe for disaster, and even if the Wolfpack are getting plenty of points in the paint on the offensive end, it isn’t going to offset the 3-point barrage that Duke will be able to unleash. Not to mention the fact that these two teams have been polar opposites in big games. While the Blue Devils have taken out the likes of Kentucky, Louisville, Ohio State and Minnesota, the Wolfpack lost to Michigan and Oklahoma State. North Carolina State’s roster is arguably more talented and is definitely more athletic, but the Blue Devils will have the personnel to exploit the Wolfpack’s weaknesses on defense and the big game experience to win on the road.

Prediction: Duke Blue Devils (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

Duke @ NC State
Line: Duke -2.5
Total: Over/Under 148
Time: 12 PM EST on ESPN

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