2013 College Basketball Odds and Free Picks: Michigan @ Michigan St Predictions – Big 10 Free Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Michigan @ Michigan State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 2/11/2013: It seems like almost every night two Big Ten powerhouses are going at it, and Tuesday is no exception. The fourth-ranked Michigan Wolverines (21-3, 8-3 Big Ten) are traveling to East Lansing to face the eighth-ranked Michigan State Spartans (20-4, 9-2 Big Ten), and while bragging rights are on the line between these in-state rivals, the conference title implications are even more significant. The Spartans are currently tied with the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers for first place in the Big Ten, but the Wolverines are one of two teams just a game back of the top spot. Michigan State also enters the matchup having won nine of their last 10 games while Michigan is coming off a heartbreaking overtime loss to Wisconsin that saw the Badgers tie the game at the end of regulation on a buzzer beater from just inside half court. Oddsmakers are expecting a tight one between these rivals, and the Spartans are one-point favorites at home.

Led by Wooden Award contender Trey Burke, the Wolverines have one of the more potent offenses in the country this year. The point guard leads the team with 18.2 points per game, and Michigan currently ranks 20th in scoring nationally and sixth in field goal percentage. His backcourt mates Tom Hardaway Jr. and Nik Stauskas only add to the Wolverines’ perimeter firepower, and the duo is averaging 28.1 points per game combined. All three have hit at least 46 3-pointers this year. In the frontcourt, a pair of freshmen has been forced to shoulder the load. Glenn Robinson III and Mitch McGary are averaging 17.7 points and 11.6 rebounds combined, and while the two have improved over the course of the year, Michigan can have trouble on the boards and defending the paint at times.

As with most Tom Izzo teams, this year’s Spartans don’t always look pretty on paper or on the court. That being said, they plays physical defense, get quality shots and hit the boards. In fact, Michigan State ranks 35th in the country in field goal percentage and is averaging over nine steals per game. Guard Keith Appling is the team’s leading scorer and one of the vocal leaders, but freshman shooting guard Gary Harris and sophomore swingman Branden Dawson are both scoring in double figures, as well. In the frontcourt, the Spartans have to strong, experienced big men that can punish opponents in the post. Adreian Payne and Derrick Nix are averaging 18.7 and 13.1 points combined, and both players are hitting well over 50 percent of their shots.

The Wolverines Win If:

The Wolverines have speed and perimeter firepower to spare, and they need to push the pace of this game at every opportunity. The Spartans love to get physical on both ends of the court, but if Michigan is getting quick looks at the hope and shooting well from the perimeter early, Michigan State will be forced to adjust its approach to keep pace. Defensively, Robinson and McGary don’t necessarily have to shut down the Spartans’ frontcourt, but the Wolverines have to take care of business on the defensive glass and prevent Michigan State from killing them on second-chance points. Overall, the Wolverines will be in good shape if they can neutralize the Spartans’ size advantage as much as possible while making the game as fast paced and high scoring as possible. If the game becomes a battle of jump shots, the Wolverines will be in the driver’s seat.

The Spartans Win If:

There aren’t many teams in the country with two back-to-the-basket scoring options in Payne and Nix. Facing a smaller, inexperienced Michigan frontcourt, the Spartans have to win the battle in the paint in order to control the pace of the game. If Michigan State can pound the ball inside and get quality scoring chances on a consistent basis, the Wolverines aren’t going to have as many transition scoring opportunities. Making the game as low scoring and defensive oriented as possible will be crucial for the Spartans, and their odds of winning increase the slower the tempo becomes. Defensively, containing Burke as much as possible is always a plus, but making sure a majority of the Wolverines’ looks from beyond the arc are contested will be key, as well. At the end of the day, Michigan State wins this game if they pound Michigan inside, control the boards and control the pace.

Bottom Line:

Shockingly, this is the first meeting between these teams when both have been ranked inside the top 10, which should only add to the intensity of the rivalry. On the court, tempo is going to be everything, and based on recent history, the Spartan should have an edge. Michigan State is a physical, defensive-minded team, and the Wolverines have struggled to establish their high-powered, efficient offense on the road against stout defenses. Michigan lost 56-53 at Ohio State and just lost the aforementioned heartbreaker to the Badgers in Madison 65-62. Now, Burke and company have to try to control the pace against a Spartans’ bunch that has won 32 of its last 33 at home, including all 14 games this season. It will be a challenge for the Wolverines to say the least, and Michigan State is too well coached and experienced not to play to its strengths. It will be close, but the Spartans will grind their way to a win.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-1) Cover the Spread

Michigan @ Michigan State
Line: Michigan -1
Total: Over/Under 131.5
Time: 9:00 PM EST on ESPN

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