2013 College Basketball Odds and Free Picks: Indiana @ Ohio State Predictions – Big 10 Free Picks

2013 College Basketball Picks: Indiana @ Ohio State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free NCAA Basketball Picks 2/10/2013: The Big Ten is one of the toughest conferences in college basketball this year, and there is currently a five-team breakaway at the top of the standings. Two of the teams in that race will go head to head Sunday when the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers (20-3, 8-2 Big Ten) travel to Columbus to face the 10th-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (17-5, 7-3 Big Ten). Both teams are coming off two-point losses on the road as the Hoosiers lost to Illinois on a buzzer beat while the Buckeyes fell to Michigan in overtime. Bouncing back from a difficult loss is never easy, and it definitely won’t be easy in a battle of top-10 teams. In this crucial matchup of Big Ten contenders, neither side is favored.

A strong argument can be made that Indiana has the best offense in the country. Not only do the Hoosiers rank second in points per game, but they rank sixth in field goal percentage, as well. Center Cody Zeller leads the way with 16.2 points per game on 59.8 percent shooting, but athletic guard Victor Oladipo is garnering some Wooden Award buzz in his own right tanks to his ability to stuff the stat sheet. Overall, five players are scoring in double digits for the Indiana, and the Hoosiers can score from the perimeter and in the paint and get the foul line. On the flip side, Indiana’s frantic offensive pace has led to some turnover issues and occasional lapses on defense. That being said, the Hoosiers do rank in the top 20 nationally in rebounding and are averaging eight steals per game.

Compared to recent years, the Buckeyes have been much more defensive minded this season. Point guard Aaron Craft is one of the top perimeter defenders in the country, and Ohio State has an eight-man rotation full of athletic defenders. The Buckeyes average seven steals and five blocks for game as a team, but the strength of their defense is their ability to consistently force opponents to take contested shots. Offensively, small forward Deshaun Thomas leads the team in scoring at 19.9 points per game, but he is one of only two players averaging double figures. As a whole, the Buckeyes are mediocre when it comes to scoring and efficiency, and the team is still searching for a reliable No. 2 option behind Thomas.

The Hoosiers Win If:

Indiana loves to score points, but they have to be smart about their approach in this matchup. Pushing the tempo and getting baskets in transition is fine, but the Hoosiers also have a huge advantage inside with Zeller. If Indiana makes sure to play through the post when they are in the half court, the Hoosiers are going to cause all kinds of issues for the smaller Ohio State defense. When Indiana is on the defensive end, they have to clog the paint and make the Buckeyes take as many jump shots as possible. Shutting down Thomas will also go a long way to helping the cause, but eliminating easy baskets for the rest of the Buckeyes is the best way to control an Ohio State offense that doesn’t have many strong shooters. If Indiana wins the battle in the paint and makes the Buckeyes work for their points, Ohio State isn’t going to be able to keep pace with the Hoosiers’ firepower.

The Buckeyes Win If:

Dictating the tempo is going to be crucial if the Buckeyes are going to pull off the upset. They have to be methodical on every offensive possession, and they have to make the Hoosiers work to get the ball up the court and get into their offensive sets. Ohio State also has to keep Indiana from the getting easy scores in transition and from getting second-chance points. At the end of the day, the Buckeyes simply don’t have the offensive firepower to beat Indiana in a fast-paced, high-scoring game. However, Wisconsin was able to beat the Hoosiers by being patient on the offensive end and getting quality shots. If the Buckeyes follow a similar formula, they could grind out a win behind the strength of their defense.

The Bottom Line:

In basketball, matchups are everything. Ohio State has been able to beat or at least hang with teams like Michigan and Duke that have a ton of offensive firepower, but both of those teams generate a lot of their offense from the perimeter. Indiana on the other hand has one of the best low-post scorers in the country in Zeller, and two big guards in Oladipo and Christian Watford that can post up smaller defenders. The Buckeyes can play physical defense they want on the Hoosiers’ perimeter players all they want but they simply don’t have the size in the frontcourt to shut down Zeller and company. More importantly, Ohio State’s offense doesn’t have enough weapons to keep pace with Indiana if the Hoosiers get rolling. The Buckeyes need their defense to fuel a win, but Indiana has the personnel to exploit the one weakness the OSU defense has. The Hoosiers will take advantage of their size and frontcourt scoring to power their way past the Buckeyes.

Prediction: Indiana Hoosiers (PK) Win the Game

Indiana @ Ohio State
Line: Ohio State -2
Total: Over/Under 138
Time: 1:00 PM EST on CBS

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Basketball season for daily Free College Basketball Predictions and Vegas College Basketball Odds plus daily updated Men’s 2013 National Championship Betting Odds.