2012 PAC 12 Tournament Title Game Arizona vs Colorado Odds and Predictions – PAC 12 Championship Vegas Lines

2012 PAC 12 Tournament Championship Game Odds and Predictions on Arizona vs Colorado – 2012 PAC 12 Title Game Free Picks and Preview: A wild year in the Pac-12 has continued in the conference tournament as the fourth-seeded Arizona Wildcats and the sixth-seeded Colorado Buffaloes advanced to Saturday’s championship game. Considering that no team took control of the conference during the regular season, it is no surprise that two lower-seeded teams worked their way to the finals. However, the matchup is a nightmare for bubble teams everywhere. Neither Arizona nor Colorado was going to make the NCAA tournament, but the winner of Saturday’s game will receive an automatic bid. As if playing for a conference tournament crown wasn’t enough motivation, playing for a spot in the big dance should only up the intensity. In the battle of underdogs, the Wildcats are 3 ½-point favorites.

In the up-and-down Pac-12, it is no surprise that Arizona and Colorado split the regular season meetings, with each team winning on its home court. On paper, neither team jumps out offensively, and both sides are mediocre in terms of points per game, rebounding and field goal percentage. Both teams do bring solid defenses to the fight, but the lack of superstar player means an unexpected hero could end up deciding the outcome.

For Arizona, establishing its forward tandem in the post will be the team’s top priority. Solomon Hill and Jesse Perry are both averaging more than 12 points per game and more than seven rebounds. Outside of forward Andre Roberson, the Buffaloes are thin on the frontline. Roberson does average a double-double, but he can’t cover both Hill and Perry. Arizona should have plenty of mismatches on the block, and the Wildcats need to take advantage.

Meanwhile, Colorado needs to exploit its perimeter edge and stretch the defense with its array of 3-point shooters. All five starters can step beyond the arc and knock down a shot, and six different players have hit at least 17 3-pointers this season. By pulling Arizona’s post players away from the hoop, the Buffaloes could open up some offensive rebounding opportunities. For two teams that struggle on offense, second-chance points and easy baskets are that much more important.

The X-factor in the game could be Arizona guard Kyle Fogg. He is the team’s leading scorer and best perimeter shooter. When he is knocking down jump shots, defenses are forced to extend to try to slow him down. If he spreads out the Colorado defense Saturday night, Hill and Perry should enjoy big games with the added room to work. It is no coincidence that when Fogg dropped 15 points in Arizona’s win over Colorado that Hill went for 16 and Perry for 17. The Wildcats’ offense is never going to be considered high-scoring, but when Arizona is scoring from the inside and outside, this team can put enough points on the board to win.

While both teams have pulled off some upsets on their way to the Pac-12 tournament title game, the run has to end for someone Saturday night. At the end of the day, Arizona is the more talented team, benefitting from an explosive guard in Fogg and two legitimate post scorers in Hill and Perry. Granted, the Buffaloes are one hot 3-point shooting night away from making the NCAA tournament, but Arizona’s balance on offense should win out in a battle of tough defenses.

Prediction: Arizona Wildcats (-3 ½) Cover the Spread

PAC 12 CHAMPIONSHIP GAME VEGAS ODDS: Favorite: Arizona -3.5 Total: Over/Under 129

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