2012 NCAAB Picks: Syracuse @ Cincinnati Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 1/23/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Syracuse @ Cincinnati 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 1/23/12: Coming off its first loss of the season, the top-ranked Syracuse (20-1) faces another tough conference road test when the Orange visits Cincinnati (15-5) as part of ESPN’s Big Monday. The Bearcats are coming off a heartbreaking loss to West Virginia over the weekend, but Cincinnati has already notched upset victories over Connecticut and Georgetown this season, and a win against Syracuse would be a nice addition to a steadily-improving tournament resume. A win by the Bearcats would also tighten of the Big East race. Cincinnati is currently one of six teams tied with two conference losses, while Syracuse is alone in first with just a single loss. The Orange is 4 ½-point favorites in this matchup, but there is no such thing as an off night in the deepest conference in the country.

Both teams are scoring more than 70 points per game this season, but Syracuse is averaging nearly 80 per game and has been the far more efficient offense. The Orange is shooting 48 percent from the field as a team, while the Bearcats are shooting less than 43 percent. In fact, Cincinnati has one of the worst field goal percentages of any team in the country, but timely shots and strong defense have been able to mask the issue for the most part.

It could be a different story Monday night. Syracuse runs a tricky 2-3 zone, and this year’s team has the length and athleticism to make penetrating the lane next to impossible. The Bearcats will have to make some perimeter shots in order to loosen up the Orange defense. Guards Sean Kilpatrick and Cashmere Wright are the team’s two best 3-point shooters, and both players will have to step up Monday if the Bearcats are going to pull off another Big East upset.

Syracuse’s defense isn’t the only problem the Bearcats will face. The Orange’s efficiency on the offensive end is a direct result of the team’s depth. Seven players are averaging more than seven points a game, and on any given night, a different player can carry Syracuse offensively. Forward Kris Joseph and guard Dion Waiters have been the team’s to most consistent scorers, but the Orange are still more than capable of winning if either player has an off night.

One area Cincinnati should have an edge is on the glass. Neither team rebounds overly well, but Syracuse is going to be without its premier post player Fab Melo. Academic issues are going to sideline the forward for an undetermined amount of time, and losing Melo leaves the Orange without its best rebounder. It also robs the team of a force on the defensive end. Melo is averaging 3.0 blocks per game this season, and if the Bearcats can slip inside the zone, there won’t be near as much opposition at the rim.

With Melo out, Cincinnati forward Yancy Gates becomes the likely X-factor. His season has been marred by an ugly brawl against rival Xavier that cost him six games because of his role in the fight. However, he has been solid since returning averaging more than 12 points per game and nearly 10 rebounds. If Gates can assert himself as a post scorer and dominate the glass, the Bearcats could end up controlling the tempo. In particular, Gates should have a chance to grab some offensive rebounds and get some much-needed easy scores against an otherwise stingy Syracuse defense.

In the end, the loss of Melo likely won’t be enough to derail the Orange. The team is going to be extra motivated coming of its first loss of the year, and Syracuse’s 2-3 zone poses all kinds of problems for a Cincinnati team that doesn’t shoot the ball from the perimeter very well. Gates hasn’t shown the tendency to take over basketball games, even when he has an edge. There is no reason to expect that to change Monday night, and the depth of the Orange should prevail.

Prediction: Syracuse Orange (-4 ½) Covers the Spread

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Basketball season for daily Free College Basketball Picks and Vegas College Basketball Lines plus daily updated Men’s 2012 National Championship Futures Odds.