2012 NCAAB Picks: Missouri @ Baylor Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 1/21/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Missouri @ Baylor 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 1/21/12: Two of the best teams in the Big 12 and in the country will be on display Saturday afternoon when the fifth-ranked Missouri Tigers (17-1) go on the road to face the third-ranked Baylor Bears (17-1). Both teams are enjoying one of the best seasons in program history, and they are currently tied for second in the conference. However, there is more than a potential Big 12 title at stake this weekend. The winner will have a resume-building victory that could end up determining a top seed in the NCAA tournament if both teams continue to play well. Home-court advantage always seems to be a factor in college hoops, and not surprisingly, the Bears are 4 ½-point favorites.

The recipe for success for both teams this season has been depth and balance. Both the Bears and the Tigers have five players averaging at least 10 points this season. Both offenses are perimeter oriented as well, relying on the 3-point shot and transition baskets. Neither team has a particularly physical frontcourt, but the guard play for both teams has been more than enough to overcome the lack of a dominant interior presence.

With the team’s being almost identical in terms of style and personnel, finding small mismatches will be crucial to determining the winner. The Tigers have a slight edge in terms of perimeter scoring thanks to guards Kim English and Marcus Denmon. The two are averaging more than 32 points per game combined and have already hit 96 3-pointers. While Baylor has reliable guards as well in Pierre Jackson and Brady Haslip, neither player is able to match the scoring ability of Denmon and English. If Missouri’s dynamic duo can dominate on offense, the Bears could struggle to keep pace.

Of course, Baylor has the edge when it comes to size. Forwards Perry Jones III and Quincy Acy rank first and second on the team in both points per game and rebounds per game. The two are also strong on the defensive end, averaging more than a steal per game and combining for nearly four blocks. Jones in particular has the ability to take over games because of his freakish combination of height, athleticism and ball-handling ability. Against a Missouri team that is somewhat soft in the frontcourt, Jones and Acy have a chance to dominate the glass and score in the post. Whether or not they take advantage of the mismatch is another story. Both players have had a habit of floating away from the basket and settling for jumpers. It cost the Bears dearly in a loss to Kansas, as the Jayhawks pummeled Baylor in the paint.

The true X-factor in the game could end up being Jones. In a game that features plenty of solid guards on both sides, Jones will be the unquestioned top big man on the court. With the Tigers struggling on the boards and lacking a lot of size inside, Jones has a golden opportunity to go for 20-plus points and 10-plus boards. If he does, Baylor can control the game.

If the Bears get into a 3-point shooting war with the Tigers, things could end badly for Baylor. However, the Bears also have a big advantage in terms of size and interior scoring ability. More importantly, the loss to Kansas in Baylor’s last game should be just the reminder the team needs to exploit their edge. With Jones and Acy in the frontcourt, the Bears should control the boards and get more easy scores during the course of a game. In the end, Baylor’s size outlasts Missouri’s perimeter firepower.

Prediction: Baylor Bears (-4 ½) Cover the Spread

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