2012 NCAAB Picks: Duke @ North Carolina Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/8/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Duke @ North Carolina 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 2/8/12: One of the most storied rivalries in sports will be on center stage Wednesday when the ninth-ranked Duke Blue Devils (19-4) head into the Dean Smith Center to take on the fifth-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels (20-3). The two programs are perennial contenders for the ACC title and the national title, and this season is no exception. North Carolina is currently sitting atop the conference standings, with the Duke just a game back. Meanwhile, both teams are in the mix for a top seed come tournament time. Games between the bitter rivals always seem to come down to the last few possessions, and not surprisingly, the Tarheels are just six-point favorites on their home court.

Breaking down the matchup, it looks like a battle of inside versus outside will take place between Duke’s loaded backcourt and North Carolina’s loaded frontcourt. That being said, both sides will look to push the tempo and score in transition. Both offenses rank in the top 15 in points scored, but the Tarheels own the top-scoring offense in the country at more than 84 points per game. Even the North Carolina gets plenty of points in the paint, the Tarheels have the athletes to run the floor. With Duke’s guards more than willing to do the same, a fast-paced game could be on tap.

For the Blue Devils, finding a way to slow down North Carolina’s trio of big men will be crucial. Forwards Harrison Barnes and John Henson and center Tyler Zeller are averaging more than 14 points per game and are all shooting more than 47 percent from the field. Barnes is one of the better one-on-one scorers in the country and has range out to the 3-point line, while Henson and Zeller are averaging a double-double. The Blue Devils will have to rely on Mason and Miles Plumlee to keep the Tarheels’ big men in check, and neither player has anywhere near the offensive skill of Barnes, Zeller and Henson. As long as North Carolina stays committed to the post game, scoring opportunities should be available all night long.

Of course, the Tarheels will face a similar problem slowing down Duke’s trio of guards. Austin Rivers, Seth Curry and Andre Dawkins are all threats from beyond the arc, and Rivers is excellent at penetrating and getting the foul line. North Carolina has one of the best point guards in the country in Kendall Marshall, but his strength is running the Tarheels’ offense and not shutting down opposing players on the defensive end. Duke’s perimeter scoring power should allow the Blue Devils to spread the court and neutralize North Carolina’s size advantage to a degree.

The X-factor in the game is likely going to be Rivers. While Duke’s offense relies heavily on ball rotation and perimeter shooting, Rivers is one player that has the ability to take over a game and create his own shot. In a tight game, there are going to be some possessions when the Blue Devils are going to need the star freshman to make some plays. The Tarheels have Barnes and Zeller to turn to when they need a basket, and Rivers has to play a similar role for Duke. If he is in attack mode Wednesday night, he could be the added scoring punch the Blue Devils need to keep pace.

Duke is always dangerous because it perimeter shooters can catch fire at any time and score in bunches. However, the Blue Devils have been exposed by both Miami and Florida State on the interior, and North Carolina brings the best collection of post players in the country into this matchup. Duke ranks 105th in rebounding, and the Tarheels are the best rebounding team in the country. Over the course of the game, North Carolina’s ability to limit Duke to one shot on offense and to get second-shot opportunities of its own should tip the scale in the Tarheels’ favor. The Blue Devils’ big men just don’t have the size and speed to contain Barnes, Zeller and Henson.

Prediction: North Carolina Tarheels (-6) Cover the Spread

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