2012 NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: First Four Teams Out of the NCAA Tournament

2012 NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams Forecast – Expert Picks and Predictions on First Four Teams Out of the NCAA Tournament Bracket: Conference tournaments are in full swing, and while some teams are celebrating automatic bids, other teams are sweating out life on the bubble. For these bubble teams, their conference tournament is their last opportunity to impress the voters before Selection Sunday. Picking up a few more wins and upsetting a top-ranked team along the way would certainly bolster any team’s tournament resume. Some teams have more work to do than others, and if the season ended today, a few teams would be on the wrong side of the bubble by the slimmest of margins.

2012 NCAA Tournament Bubble Teams Forecast and Predictions: First Four Teams Out of the NCAA Tournament Bracket

1. Seton Hall Pirates (19-11)

The Pirates were in good shape heading into the final weeks of the regular season, but after dropping three out of their final four games, they are back on the wrong side of the bubble. Seton Hall ranks 59th in the RPI and has the 50th-toughest schedule. Not surprisingly, those numbers are right on the borderline, and while a pair of wins against top-25 competition helps, they don’t erase the other issues. Seton Hall had two winnable games at the end of the year to finish above 0.500 in Big East play, but instead, the Pirates finished 8-10. They have to win at least a couple of games in the conference tournament to make the field of 68.

2. Oregon Ducks (22-8)

With the Pac-12 having a down year, the Oregon Ducks didn’t have a chance to earn a statement win during conference play, and they didn’t help their cause with a weak out-of-conference schedule. While ranking 49th in the RPI isn’t bad, the Ducks’ 88th-ranked schedule is a major red flag. In fact, Oregon wouldn’t even be in contention for an at-large bid if not for a strong finish to the year. The Ducks have won four straight and six of their last seven heading into the Pac-12 tournament, putting themselves back in the bubble conversation. If Oregon can at least reach the finals, they have a decent shot at making the NCAA tournament.

3. Miami Hurricanes (18-11)

Everything about the Hurricanes screams bubble team. Miami has the 41st-toughest schedule and ranks 53rd in the RPI. The Hurricanes do have two wins against teams ranked in the top 25, but they also have five losses. The bigger issue for the Hurricanes is that two other teams finished tied with them for fourth in the ACC with 9-7 records in conference play, and both of teams had better overall records than Miami. The ACC isn’t a strong enough conference to put six teams in the NCAA tournament, which means Miami has to do something in the conference tournament to set themselves apart.

4. Arizona Wildcats (21-10)

Coming off an Elite Eight appearance last season, a 21-win season in a major conference would normally put a team in good shape to make the NCAA tournament. However, Arizona’s 21 wins may have been the weakest in recent memory. A down year for the Pac-12 as a whole didn’t help matters, but the Wildcats’ schedule ranks 115th. Arizona didn’t have a single win against a team ranked in the top 25, and more importantly, the Wildcats rank 76th in the RPI. Teams outside the top 75 in the RPI almost never make the NCAA tournament, and Arizona will have to make a deep run in the Pac-12 tournament to have any shot at being a part of March Madness.

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