2012 NCAA Bracketology Picks and Predictions: No. 1 Seed Most Likely to Lose First

2012 NCAA Bracket Picks and Bracketology Predictions: No. 1 Seed Most Likely to Lose First: Although a No. 1 seed has never lost in opening-round matchup, it is also rare for all four No. 1 seed to advance to the Final Four. In fact, it has happened only once in since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams. An even scarier thought for the top seeds is that there have only been three occasions when three of the No. 1 seeds made it to the national semifinals. Even the round of 32 has become dangerous for the top seeds. No. 1 seeds still advance to the Sweet 16 approximately 87 percent of the time, but in each of the last two seasons, one of the top seeds has bowed out in the round of 32. In other words, nothing is set in stone for any team after the round of 64. When breaking down the regions and ranking the top-seeded teams in order of which one is most likely to lose first, the first team on the list will probably surprise a lot of folks.

NCAA Bracketology 2012: #1 Seed Most Likely to Lose First

1.      Kentucky Wildcats (South Region)

History is not on the side of the tournament’s top overall seed, and a tough draw won’t help matters. This is the ninth season that the No. 1 overall seed has been announced, and in the eight previous years, the top seed has reached the Final Four just three times. In fact, the top seed has failed to advance past the Sweet 16 in four of the eight years. More importantly, the Wildcats face a potential matchup with defending national champ Connecticut in the round of 32, and the Huskies are playing well since the return of coach Jim Calhoun.

Connecticut is also a matchup nightmare for Kentucky, with Andre Drummond in the middle and Jeremy Lamb on the perimeter. Drummond may not have the overall skill set of Kentucky’s Anthony Davis, but the freshman outweighs Davis by a ton and will be extra motivated to show NBA scouts what he can do. Meanwhile, Lamb and fellow guard Shabazz Napier have already proven he can be key contributors in the NCAA tournament after last year’s title run. Throw in the fact that Calhoun and Kentucky coach John Calipari are bitter rivals, and there will be nothing easy about a meeting with Huskies for the Wildcats. To top it off, Indiana could be waiting for Kentucky in the Sweet 16, and the Hoosiers are one of the two teams to beat the Wildcats this season. Talk about a tough draw.

2.      Syracuse Orange (East Region)

Syracuse is one of the deepest teams in the country, and Jim Boeheim’s bunch is certainly battle tested after dominating the Big East. The Orange also benefit from having one of the most unique and confusing defenses in the country. Syracuse’s 2-3 zone can stifle opponents that aren’t familiar with the system, and there are very few teams that have the outside shooting to attack the zone’s weak point. However, one of those teams is in the East Region and could face the Orange in the Sweet 16. The fifth-seeded Vanderbilt Commodores have two excellent long-range gunners on their roster. Guard John Jenkins and forward Jeffery Taylor have combined for 192 3-pointers this season, and both players shoot more than 43 percent from beyond the arc. The Commodores are riding a wave of momentum after knocking of Kentucky to win the SEC tournament, and if they meet Syracuse, their perimeter firepower could send the Orange to an early exit.

3.      North Carolina Tarheels (Midwest Region)

The Tarheels could be at the top of this list if John Henson was ruled out for the tournament. However, he was said to be available in an emergency situation in the ACC tournament final, which probably means he will at least be contributing in some capacity during the big dance. North Carolina struggles against teams with physical defenses and teams that can score from the perimeter, but looking at their region, the Tarheels won’t have to worry about a team with those credentials until the Elite Eight. North Carolina is simply way more athletic and has way more offensive firepower than the teams it could face through its first three games. The Tarheels aren’t a lock to make the Final Four, but they should sleepwalk into the regional final.

4.      Michigan State Spartans (West Region)

For the fourth time in the Tom Izzo era, the Spartans are a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The other three teams Michigan State earned a top seed, Izzo’s bunch went to the Final Four. Izzo has made a living off of overachieving in March, and when he has had elite teams, he has always delivered. The Spartans have a physical defense, plenty of big bodies inside, and a senior leader in forward Draymond Green. With the exception of a matchup with second-seeded Missouri in the Elite Eight, Michigan State should be able to bully and beat its way past everyone else in this region. Throw in Izzo’s track record in March, and it’s tough not to love the Spartans’ chances of reaching New Orleans.