2012 NCAA Basketball Picks: Kentucky @ Georgia Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 1/24/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Kentucky @ Georgia 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 1/24/12: Fresh of being named the No. 1 team in the country, the Kentucky Wildcats (19-1) will put their new ranking on the line in a road game against SEC rival Georgia (10-9) as part of ESPN’s Super Tuesday. The Bulldogs have been struggling in conference play, winning just one of five games. However, the perennial loaded but young Wildcats have had a nasty habit of losing road games under John Calipari. Georgia is a 12-point underdog, but the Bulldogs also have nothing to lose against the nation’s top team.

As their records suggest, the two teams are on the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of offensive production. The Wildcats rank in the top 20 in both points per game (79.5) and field goal percentage (48.5). Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are scoring less than 62 points per game and are shooting a dismal 39.9 percent from the field. Depth has played a crucial role in the success or lack thereof for both sides. The Wildcats have six players scoring in double figures compared to just two for the Bulldogs.

Kentucky also has a big edge on the glass. The Wildcats ranked 11th in the country in rebounds per game, and the Bulldogs rank a dismal 259th. With Kentucky likely controlling the boards, Georgia’s offensive woes are only going to be exacerbated by several possessions that end after a single shot. In contrast, the Wildcats are able to mask poor shooting performances by dominating on the offensive glass. Forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been particularly effective at getting second-chance points.

While the Wildcats can be high-scoring machine on offense, the true strength of this team is its defensive prowess. Four players are averaging more than a steal per game and three players are averaging more than a block per game. At the center of the Kentucky defense is freshman center Anthony Davis. He has already shattered the school’s single-season record for blocks and is averaging almost five per game. When he is on the court, scoring at the rim is next to impossible for opponents. Davis is the ultimate enforcer in college basketball.

Although impressive in several phases of the game, the Wildcats do struggle with turnovers at time, and they aren’t a great 3-point shooting team. Freshman point guard Marquis Teague has personified the problem, averaging more than three turnovers per game. In games that Teague has played well, Kentucky has blown out most opponents. When he has looked rattled, the Wildcats’ offense has become inconsistent. If Georgia can force Kentucky to make some mistakes, it will create easy scoring chances for the Bulldogs in transition and prevent the Wildcats from using their size advantage on the offensive end.

The X-factor in the game will likely be Georgia guard Kentavious Caldwell=Pope. The freshman is leading the Bulldogs in scoring at more than 14 per game, and despite being inexperienced, he is the only player on Georgia’s team that can consistently create offense for himself. He also averages nearly two steals per game, meaning he has a chance to disrupt Teague and the Kentucky offense. Caldwell-Pope would have to play the game of his young collegiate career, but if an upset is going to occur, he will have to mastermind it.

In the end, Georgia would have to execute a flawless game plan in order to knock off the top-rated Wildcats. Kentucky has more depth and more scoring options, and the Wildcats’ size inside poses a major issue for the Bulldogs. Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist and the rest of the Kentucky post players should dominate the boards on both ends, and it should be another block party for Davis inside against a Georgia team that doesn’t have a single frontcourt player averaging more than eight points per game. Kentucky’s size, speed and talent is simply too much for the Bulldogs to contend with.

Prediction: Kentucky Wildcats (-12) Covers the Spread

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