2012 NCAA Basketball Picks: Florida @ Kentucky Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/7/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Florida @ Kentucky 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 2/7/12: The top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats (23-1) have been steamrolling over the rest of the SEC, but despite being undefeated in conference play, a loss to seventh-ranked Florida (19-4) would put Kentucky’s SEC title hopes in doubt. The two teams meet in Rupp Arena as part of ESPN’s Super Tuesday, and with the Gators just one game back in the loss column, an upset victory over the Wildcats would give Florida control of its own destiny. Of course, knocking off Kentucky on its home court is one of the toughest tasks in college basketball, and not surprisingly, the Wildcats are 10-point favorites.

Both teams have plenty of firepower on the offensive end, ranking among the top-20 teams in the country in scoring. The Gators have actually averaged more points per game, while the Wildcats have had the better field goal percentage as a team. Given both sides’ tendency to push the tempo, there is a good chance both teams could surpass the 80-point mark in what should be an up-and-down type of game.

Breaking down the personnel matchups, it is impossible not to start with Kentucky center Anthony Davis. The superstar freshman has already broken Shaquille Oneal’s SEC record for blocks, and his offense is improving by the game. He is the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, averaging a double-double in addition to nearly five blocks per game. When Davis is on the court, the Wildcats are better on offense and defense.

The tough task of controlling Davis will fall on Florida power forward Patric Young. He is Florida’s leading rebounder and a physical presence in the post. Young is shooting more than 62 percent from the field, but his contributions on the offense end won’t be as vital as his defensive abilities. Young has to keep Davis off the offensive boards, and he has to prevent him from catching the ball in his comfort zone. Young may not have Davis’ length, but he does have the strength to push him around. He has to be assertive early and often to keep the Wildcats’ star in check.

While Davis and forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist give Kentucky the edge in the frontcourt, the Gators should have the edge in the backcourt. Guards Kenny Boynton, Erving Walker and Bradley Beal are averaging more than 44 points per game combined and have hit 165 3-pointers between them. Kentucky has talented guards, but they are also young and inexperienced. The Gators’ trio should be able to force some turnovers on the defensive end and score their share of points on the offensive end.

The X-factor in the game could be Kentucky forward Terrence Jones. Although he is averaging just 12.5 points per game, the sophomore has the ability to take over any game. His length and range make him tough to guard, and the Gators really don’t have a forward that can match his athleticism. Jones is his own worst enemy and can be too passive at times, but he is a potential matchup nightmare for Florida.

In the end, the size of Davis and the Kentucky frontcourt is likely too much for the Gators to contend with. That being said, the Florida guards should be to use their speed and perimeter shooting to keep the Gators just close enough to make things interesting. The Wildcats are the more balanced team, but a 10-point spread is too much for a matchup between a pair of top-10 teams.

Prediction: Florida Gators (+10) Cover the Spread

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