2012 NCAA Basketball North Carolina @ Duke Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 3/3/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: North Carolina @ Duke 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions 3/3/12: The greatest rivalry in college hoops will be rekindled Saturday night, and there couldn’t be more at stake. The sixth-ranked North Carolina Tarheels (26-4) will travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on the third-ranked Duke Blue Devils (26-4), with the winner earning the ACC regular season title and setting themselves up for a possible No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. It’s not like either side needed extra incentive, but with so much on the line, this weekend’s meeting has all the makings of another classic between North Carolina and Duke. Playing in front of the Cameron Crazies, the Tarheels are 1 ½-point favorites.

Of course, Saturday’s game may have a tough time topping the first showdown between the two teams. A February 8 meeting in Chapel Hill featured an incredible comeback by the Blue Devils that was capped by a buzzer-beater 3-pointer from freshman guard Austin Rivers. Duke was dominated in almost every facet of the game and trailed by 10 with just 10 minutes remaining. However, Rivers’ career-high 29 points and six 3-pointers rallied the Blue Devils to an 85-84 win.

While the finish was unforgettable and Duke emerged victorious, it is also worth noting that the Tarheels’ frontcourt controlled the first 38 minutes of the game. Tyler Zeller, John Henson and Harrison Barnes combined for 60 points and 31 rebounds, scoring at will in the paint against a below average interior defense for the Blue Devils. In fact, the Tarheels’ starting frontcourt had as many rebounds as the entire Duke team. The problem isn’t going away this weekend, and Duke is going to have a tough time slowing down North Carolina’s trio in the rematch, as well. Rivers bailed out the Blue Devils last time, but there is no guarantee that lightning can strike twice.

Not surprisingly, North Carolina’s perimeter defense is going to be a deciding factor in the Saturday’s outcome. The Blue Devils hit 14 3-pointers in the February victory, allowing them to overcome their inefficiencies in the paint and on the glass. The strength of this year’s Duke squad is its backcourt, and the Blue Devils don’t hide the fact that they like to attempt a ton of 3-pointers. Rivers, Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins and Ryan Kelly have all hit at least 40 3-pointers this season, and all four are hitting more than 39 percent of their attempts. After the meltdown in the first meeting, the Tarheels should be better prepared to guard the perimeter this weekend. However, being prepared and actually stopping the Blue Devils from scoring from beyond the arc are two different things.

His clutch performance in Duke’s February victory makes Rivers the obvious X-factor for the Blue Devils. He is the team’s one player that can create his own shot on a consistent basis and take over a game. Rivers did just that in Duke’s February victory, and there is no doubt that he is the team’s best offensive option. When he gets in a rhythm, he can transform a solid Duke offense into an elite one. Against high-scoring North Carolina team, the Blue Devils will likely need as many points as they can get.

For North Carolina, point guard Kendall Marshall could be the player that tips the scales in favor of the Tarheels. He is one of the nation’s top assist men, and he is the engine that drives aNorth Carolinaoffense that ranks second in the country in scoring. However, he lost control of the game in final minutes in the February loss to the Blue Devils.North Carolina needs Marshall to make the right decision to prevent the turnovers that fueled Duke’s comeback. The Tarheels are thin at guard, and they live and die with Marshall’s decisions at the point.

Basketball fans love the rivalry between Duke and North Carolina not only because of the great players that suit up for both teams, but for the unexpected and exciting finishes, as well. Bettors on the other hand probably don’t appreciate the unpredictability factor. February’s game was a prime example of how anything can happen when these two teams meet, and it was also an example of how home-court advantage doesn’t always matter. The Tarheels were the better team for all but two minutes when the two sides met in Chapel Hill, and shifting venues to Cameron Indoor Stadium won’t change that. North Carolina’s ability to get easy baskets in the paint on a routine basis should put Roy Williams’ bunch in a position to win once again. With February’s loss fresh in their minds, the Tarheels should make sure they finish what they start this time.

Prediction: North Carolina Tarheels (-1 ½) Cover the Spread

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