Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Missouri @ Kansas 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions 2/25/12: To say that there is a lot riding on Saturday’s meeting between the third-ranked Missouri Tigers (25-3) and fifth-ranked Kansas Jayhawks (23-5) would be an understatement. The winner will be in control of its own destiny in the Big 12 title race, and more importantly, the winner will almost certainly earn a No. 1 seed in the fast-approaching NCAA tournament. With so much at stake, there should be a pressure-packed atmosphere inside Phog Allen Fieldhouse. Armed with one of the best home-court advantages in the country, the Jayhawks are six-point favorites.
Saturday’s showdown is a rematch of a meeting earlier this month. In that game, Kansas led by eight with a couple of minutes remaining, only to watch Missouri close the game on an 11-0 run and emerge with a 74-71 victory. The Jayhawks have responded well since the loss, winning five straight. During the stretch, Kansas has picked up road wins against conference opponents Baylor, Kansas State and Texas A&M. Meanwhile, the Tigers enter Saturday’s matchup coming off their first loss since January. Missouri was upset at home by Kansas State Tuesday night, snapping a seven-game winning streak. Two of the Tigers’ three losses this year have come at the hands of the Wildcats.
Both teams have plenty of firepower on the offensive end. The Jayhawks rank inside the top 40 in points per game and inside the top 25 in field goal percentage. The Tigers have been even better, ranking in the top 10 nationally in points scored and owning the second-best field goal percentage in the country. Kansas’ offense is a balanced attack, relying on forward Thomas Robinson in the post and point guard Tyshawn Taylor on the perimeter. Meanwhile, Missouri uses a perimeter-oriented attack that features four guards in the starting lineup. Marcus Denmon and Kim English have been the top offensive weapons for the Tigers most of the year.
In the first meeting, both teams’ stars delivered. Robinson scored 25 points and grabbed 13 rebounds for the Jayhawks, while Taylor chipped in with 21 of his own. English and Denmon countered by scoring a combined 47 points for the Tigers, with Denmon stealing the show. He scored a game-high 29 points, hitting six 3-pointers in the process. He also nailed two 3-point shots in the final minute to secure the comeback victory. With the Tigers’ overall lack of size and the Jayhawks lack of strong perimeter defenders, all four players could be in for big performances once again this weekend.
For Missouri, forward Ricardo Ratliffle will likely be the X-factor. He was abused by Robinson in the first meeting and managed to score just six points himself. As the only legitimate scoring option in the post and the Tigers’ best interior defender, Ratliffle has to do a better job on both ends of the court Saturday. Denmon and company bailed out Ratliffle the first time these teams met, but Kansas was able to build an eight-point lead in large part because Robinson was scoring every time he caught the ball in the post. That can’t happen again if Missouri wants to win on the road.
Center Jeff Withey has a chance to play a similar role for Kansas. The junior was basically nonexistent in the first meeting, going scoreless and grabbing just four rebounds. However, the poor outing seems to have lit a fire in Withey. In the five games since the loss, he is averaging 16.2 points on 76.7 percent shooting, along with 10.2 rebounds and 5.4 blocks. Withey has a big advantage inside against Missouri on the offensive end, and if he and Robinson are both scoring on a consistent basis, even the high-scoring Tigers could struggle to keep up.
Despite the late-game collapse at Missouri, it’s tough not to like the Jayhawks this weekend. After all, Kansas is seeking its eighth-straight Big 12 title, which will provide added fuel for the always-raucous fans at Phog Allen Fieldhouse. More importantly, Missouri has no answer for the Jayhawks inside, and since Withey has now joined Thomas as a consistent post scorer, the Tigers have a defensive nightmare on their hands. It took an incredible performance from Denmon for Missouri to squeak out its first win against Kansas. A repeat performance won’t be easy against an improved Jayhawks team.
Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks (-8) Cover the Spread
| College Basketball: Missouri @ Kansas Date: 2/25/12 Time: 4:00 PM EST Vegas Odds – Favorite: Kansas -8 Total: Over/Under 143.5 |
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