2012 NCAA Tournament Picks: West Region Quarterfinal Murray State vs. Marquette Odds and Predictions – Free March Madness Picks 3/17/2012: The 2012 NCAA tournament continues Saturday, as the remaining teams prepare to battle it out in the round of 32, hoping to last another week and advance to the Sweet 16. Amid the myriad of games being played, a showdown in the West Region between sixth-seeded Murray State and third-seeded Marquette stands out as one of the more exciting matchups. The Golden Eagles (26-7) are a trendy pick by many to make it to the Final Four, but the Racers (31-1) have been finding ways to win all year and are the only one-loss team in the field. Both sides bring plenty of speed and offensive firepower to the table, and a fast-paced, entertaining game could be on tap. The higher-seeded Golden Eagles are favored by five points.
After some early jitters in their opening round game against Colorado State, the Racers used a monster second half to pull away to a 58-41 victory. Meanwhile, Marquette jumped on top of BYU early, eventually overpowering the pesky Cougars to notch an 88-68 win. Since neither side was tested down the stretch, nerves could play a factor for both sides if Saturday’s game goes down to the wire. Marquette is the favorite, but with the crowd likely to back the underdog Racers, Murray State could end up having the edge in a close one.
Offensively, the Racers and Golden Eagles have very similar styles. Both teams like to push the ball in transition to get easy scores, and both sides have firepower from beyond the arc. The Golden Eagles have the slight edge in points per game, but the Racers have a top-40 offense, as well. In addition, Murray State has a much higher field goal percentage as a team, ranking 23rd in the country.
With plenty of points likely to be piled up by both sides, the teams’ top scorers will have to come to play. Murray State is led by point guard Isaiah Canaan and shooting guard Donte Poole. The duo is averaging more than 33 points per game combined, and both players can score in a variety of ways. Both have made more than 100 free throws on the season, while combining for 160 3-pointers. Canaan has been lethal from beyond the arc, connecting on 95 3-pointers at a 47.3 percent clip. Marquette counters with guard Darius Johnson-Odom (18.5 ppg) and forward Jae Crowder (17.4 ppg). Like the Racers’ scoring duo, they are also capable of slashing and scoring and knocking down shots from the perimeter.
The X-factor in the game could be the Murray State defense. The Racers were stout on the defensive end all season, allowing less than 62 points per game. It allowed Murray State to win several games when their offense struggled. That being said, the Racers haven’t faced an offense with as much speed as the Marquette attack. If Murray State can limit the Golden Eagles’ transition opportunities and force them to play in the half court, the Racers could pull off the upset. If Marquette is able to get easy scores with regularity, Murray State could have trouble keeping up on the offensive end.
In the end, the similarities between the two teams will likely lead to a close game, with both sides making runs throughout the game. Marquette has an edge in athleticism, but Murray State’s stingy defense makes the Racers the more complete team. In many ways, Murray State resembles the overachieving 2004 St. Joe’s team that had excellent guard play and lost just once entering the tournament. That team went all the way to the Elite Eight before losing by two. The Racers have the experience and talent in the backcourt to make a run, and Marquette is going to find out firsthand how good this Murray State bunch really is.
Prediction: Murray State Racers (+5.5) Cover the Spread
NCAA TOURNAMENT VEGAS ODDS: Favorite: Marquette -5.5 Total: Over/Under 141.5
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