2012 Elite 8 Picks: East Regional Final Ohio St vs. Syracuse Odds and Predictions – Free Elite Eight Picks 3/24/2012: Both the second-seeded Ohio State Buckeyes (30-7) and the top-seeded Syracuse Orange (34-2) entered the season with lofty expectations. When the two teams meet Saturday night in the NCAA tournament East Regional final, one team will take a big step toward reaching those expectations by earning a trip to the Final Four in New Orleans. It is a heavyweight bout between the two top seeds in the East Region and the two of the top programs in college basketball today on one of the biggest stages in the sport. The Orange may be the top seed, but the Buckeyes are 2 ½-point favorites.
On paper, the teams are shockingly similar. The Buckeyes 75.0 points per game compared to 74.2 for the Orange. On defense, Ohio State is allowing 59.4 points per game to opponents, while Syracuse allows 60.6 per game to the opposition. Needless to say, the two teams appear to be evenly matched, although both take different approaches on both ends of the court. The Buckeyes run their offense through the post and play man-to-man defense. Meanwhile, Syracuse relies on penetration and jump shots on the offensive end and its patented 2-3 zone on defense.
One area where Syracuse has an advantage is its depth. Even without suspended big man Fab Melo, the Orange has eight players that contribute on a regular basis, and Kris Joseph, Dion Waiters, Brandon Triche and Scoop Jardine are all capable of carrying Syracuse on the offensive end for periods of time. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes basically live and die with their starting five. Down the stretch in a close game, Syracuse should be the fresher team. Ohio State’s lack of depth hasn’t hurt the team thus far, but against one of the deepest teams in the country, fatigue could become a factor for the Buckeyes.
While Syracuse is still a deep team without Melo in the lineup, his absence could hurt the Orange in the rebounding department. The 2-3 zone is excellent at stopping teams from scoring in the paint, but the system tends to surrender several offensive rebounds. Ohio State has one of the best offensive rebounders in the country in Jared Sullinger, and while he may struggle to get open looks in the post against the zone, he could still do a ton of damage with second-chance points.
Sullinger may have to get most of his points on put backs and from the foul line because Ohio State really doesn’t have the perimeter firepower to loosen up the Syracuse zone. Guard William Buford is more of a mid-range shooter, and he has been missing in action for much of the NCAA tournament. Point guard Aaron Craft has been unbelievable on the defensive end, but constantly covering the opponent’s best perimeter players has taken a toll on his offensive production. Craft’s defensive assignments won’t get an easier against the loaded Syracuse backcourt either. Sullinger and the Buckeyes are going to have to work for and manufacture their points, and they may have to play a little ugly if they want to head on to New Orleans.
The X-factor in the game will likely be Ohio State forward Deshaun Thomas. The versatile scorer is the perfect weapon against the Syracuse zone, and he has been on fire lately, averaging 25.0 points per game during the NCAA tournament. The two weak points of the Syracuse zone are the foul line area and beyond the arc. When Thomas is rolling, he can knock down mid-range jump shots and 3-pointers on a regular basis. If he has another big game, he could be the added firepower Ohio State needs on offense to get past the Orange.
Saturday matchup really boils down to the talent of Ohio State’s starting five versus the depth and discipline of Syracuse. The Buckeyes have the better NBA prospects, but they have struggled in low-scoring games when they have been forced to grind out points on the offensive end. Unless Thomas has a huge game, the recent shooting woes of Buford and Craft are going to make it tough for Ohio State to advance. Sullinger will do some damage on the offensive glass, but the 2-3 zone will likely make it impossible for him to take over the game offensively. Syracuse has the depth to wear down the Buckeyes, and by forcing Ohio State to play from the perimeter rather than the post, the Orange should be able to get the job done in a tight one.
Prediction: Syracuse Orange (+2 ½) Covers the Spread
NCAA TOURNAMENT VEGAS ODDS: Favorite: Ohio St -2.5 Total: Over/Under 135.5
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