2012 Elite 8 Picks: South Regional Final Baylor vs Kentucky Odds and Predictions – Free Elite 8 Picks 3/25/2012

2012 Elite 8 Picks: South Regional Final Baylor vs Kentucky Odds and Predictions – Free Elite Eight Picks 3/25/2012: The Kentucky Wildcats (35-2) are not only the top seed in the South Region, but they are top overall seed in the 2012 NCAA tournament. They are also one win away from heading to the Final Four and proving they were worthy of being declared the favorite prior to the start of March Madness. Standing in their way in the South Regional final are the third-seeded Baylor Bears (30-7), who are looking to reach the Final Four for the first time since 1950. Kentucky is certainly the traditional power in the matchup, but since Robert Griffin III did just give Baylor its first Heisman Trophy winner this season, and maybe the basketball program can make some history of its own. Either way, neither side is likely to go down without a fight with a trip to New Orleans hanging in the balance. The Wildcats are 7 ½-point favorites in Sunday’s game.

While wins aren’t easy to come by in March, it is safe to say that Baylor has enjoyed a relatively easy path to the regional final. In fact, 10th-seeded Xavier was the highest-seeded team the Bears have had to face thus far. Needless to say, the competition is about to get a lot more fierce, and it will be interesting to see if Baylor looks unprepared to handle a team with the talent of Kentucky or seems inspired by the confidence that comes with winning in the tournament. If the Bears happen to fall behind early, it could get ugly.

In terms of personnel, the Bears aren’t as overmatched as most teams that face Kentucky. Granted, the Wildcats still have the two top NBA prospects in center Anthony Davis and forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but Baylor counters with two NBA-caliber big men of its own in Quincy Acy and Perry Jones III. Acy in particular could have a big impact. He will be matched up with Davis, and while he may lack Davis’ overall ability, he is bigger and stronger than Kentucky’s superstar freshman. If Acy can push Davis around and throw him off his rhythm or get him in early foul trouble, Baylor’s chances of winning skyrocket. Kentucky has shown all season that it is a much better team on both ends of the court when Davis is playing well. If Acy gets the better of the head-to-head matchup, the Bears could spring the upset.

Another are where Baylor has to take advantage is at the point guard position. Kentucky’s Marquis Teague is as highly-touted as they come, but he still just a true freshman. Meanwhile, Baylor has one of the better game managers in college basketball in Pierre Jackson. He leads the Bears in scoring with almost 14 points per game and dishes out nearly six assists. Teague has had issues with turnovers at times this season, and with an experienced and polished guard like Jackson matching up against him, Teague’s bad habits could resurface. Baylor has to win the battle of the point guards if it wants to advance to the Final Four.

Kentucky’s Terrence Jones and Baylor’s Brady Heslip could end up being the X-factors. Jones is a versatile scorer, and his height makes him a matchup nightmare. He is essentially a third big man with perimeter skills. Between Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist and Jones, Baylor will have to pick its poison. Meanwhile, Heslip is the Bears’ top perimeter threat, and he has already shown during the NCAA tournament that he can single handedly shoot Baylor to a victory. If Heslip is knocking 3-pointers, Baylor may just have enough offensive firepower to keep up with the Wildcats.

While there is no doubt that Kentucky is the more talented team in the matchup, there inexperience and youth has shown through during the tournament. At times, the Wildcats look like five great individual athletes rather than a team, and it is the only reason they remain vulnerable. Baylor brings a balanced attack to the table, and while Kentucky may eventually emerge victorious, the Bears have the personnel to put the Wildcats to the test until the final buzzer.

Prediction: Baylor Bears (+8) Covers the Spread

NCAA TOURNAMENT VEGAS ODDS: Favorite: Kentucky -8 Total: Over/Under 148

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