2012 College Basketball Picks: Saint Mary’s @ Murray State Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/18/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Saint Mary’s @ Murray State 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions 2/18/12: Two potential NCAA tournament Cinderella stories will go head to head Saturday, when the 16th-ranked Saint Mary’s Gaels (23-4) hit the road to face the 14th-ranked Murray State Racers (25-1). Neither team is a traditional top 25 power nor do they face top-25 competition on a regular basis, but that being said, there is no denying that both the Gaels and the Racers have been beating a majority of the opponents on their respective schedules. With March drawing ever closer, Saturday’s meeting could have major implications for seeding. The winner of this game will likely establish itself as the elite non-power conference teams and enjoy the tournament ranking that goes along with that status. Playing at home, the Racers are 2 ½-point favorites.

Both teams have had a similar recipe for success. Saint Mary’s and Murray State are both scoring more than 75 points per game, giving up less than 62 points per game and shooting more than 47 percent from the field. Rebounding is the only noticeable difference, where Saint Mary’s ranks 53rd in the country compared to 210th for Murray State. Both programs have superior athletes compared to many of the teams in their respective conferences, allowing them to outrun and outscore many of their opponents. Not surprisingly, Murray State enters this weekend’s matchup sitting atop the Ohio Valley Conference, and the Gaels lead the West Coast Conference.

With the West Coast Conference being the tougher of the two, it would easy to assume that the Gaels are the more battle-tested team coming into this matchup. Granted, Saint Mary’s does have a pair of victories against BYU and a win against 23ranked Gonzaga, but the Racers have some notable out-of-conference wins. During a four-game stretch, Murray State knocked off Southern Mississippi, Western Kentucky, Dayton and 20th-ranked Memphis. In other words, neither side is likely going to be intimidated by the pressure-packed atmosphere this weekend.

For the Racers, establishing the backcourt duo of Isaiah Canaan and Donte Poole will be crucial. Both players are averaging more than 14 points per game, and Canaan is leading the team with 19.2 per contest. Canaan in particular is the total package as a scorer. He is excellent at driving and getting to the foul line, where he shoots more than 83 percent. He can also stretch defenses with his range, and he has 79 3-pointers while shooting more than 47 percent from beyond the arc. Plain and simple, he is the type of player that can take over a game, and he has to play well in order for Murray State to win.

Saint Mary’s bring a little more balance on the offensive end, and senior forward Rob Jones and junior guard Matthew Dellavedova provide a potent combination of inside and outside scoring. If the Gaels are going to win, Jones will have to put his stamp on the game. He is averaging 15.3 points and 10.8 rebounds, and with Murray State struggling at times on the boards, Jones should be able to score early and often from the post and limit the Racers to one shot on the offensive end. However, he has to stay out of foul trouble, and that could be difficult with Canaan slashing to the hoop on a regular basis.

The X-factor in the game could be Saint Mary’s guard Stephen Holt. At 6-4, he is taller than most guards, but he is also a solid perimeter defender. His unusual length could allow him to bother Canaan, and if Holt can derail the engine of the Racers’ offense, the Gaels’ chances of winning improve dramatically.

With similar styles facing off and plenty of talent on both sides, this game should go down to the wire. Canaan is a legitimate NBA prospect, and he provides more than enough firepower for the Racers to keep pace with the balanced attack of the Gaels. That being said, Jones and Saint Mary’s have an edge on the glass, and in a tight game, a few easy baskets and a few extra possessions will make a big difference. It won’t be easy, but the Gaels should be able to pull off the road upset.

Prediction: Saint Mary’s Gaels (+2 ½) Cover the Spread

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