2012 College Basketball Picks: Michigan State @ Michigan Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 1/17/12

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Ohio State @ Indiana 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN 1/17/12: With the rivalry that exists between Michigan State and Michigan, a meeting between the two schools is always something special. However, Tuesday’s showdown between the two teams also has conference title implications for the first time in a long time. The ninth-ranked Spartans (15-3) and the 19th-ranked Wolverines (14-4) are both having strong seasons, but both teams are coming off losses the last time they were in action. Another loss only makes a Big Ten title that much more difficult to obtain, and there should be no shortage of intensity between these two long-time rivals. The Spartans are favored in this matchup, but only by 1 ½ points.

Going on the road has been one of the toughest tasks in college hoops this season, and the Spartans should know all about it. Michigan State had won 15 games in a row until falling to Northwestern in Evanston on January 14. Still, Tom Izzo’s bunch has compiled an impressive resume this season, including picking up some big road wins against Gonzaga and Wisconsin. They also took care of business at home against an Indiana team that has done its share of upsetting this season. The Spartans’ other two losses came in the first two games of the year against North Carolina and Duke. Needless to say, a trip to Ann Arbor isn’t going to intimidate Michigan State.

For their part, the Wolverines have been stout at home, and after an ugly loss on the road to Iowa last time out, returning home could be just what the doctor ordered. Michigan hasn’t lost on its home court this season, and that’s a trend the Wolverines need to continue with road wins being tough to come by for everyone. The Wolverines are also a half game back of the Spartans for the top spot in the conference, making Tuesday’s game even more of a must win.

By the numbers, the Spartans appear to have an edge on the offensive end Michigan State is averaging 76.7 points per game compared to 69.3 for the Wolverines. More importantly, the Spartans are the far more efficient offense. Michigan State moves the ball well, ranking 12th in the country in assists per game. Sharing the ball has led to quality looks, and the Spartans are connecting on almost 48 percent of their shots as a team. Guards Brandon Wood and Keith Appling form a solid backcourt, and forward Draymond Green leads a deep and productive frontcourt. The end result is a versatile, effective offense that has been able to wear down opponents.

Michigan counters with more of a perimeter-oriented offense powered by guards Tim Hardaway Jr. and Trey Burke. Both players are averaging more than 14 points per game, and they are two of five players to have made at least 25 3-pointers for the Wolverines this season. At times, Michigan lives and dies by its outside shooting, but Hardaway and Burke have been able to get just enough dribble penetration to keep defenses honest. Not to mention that when the shots are falling from the outside, the Wolverines can overwhelm opponents with a barrage of points.

Despite the different philosophies on offense, both teams get after opponents on the defensive end. The Spartans and Wolverines are each giving up less than 61 points per game, and Tuesday’s matchup is sure to feature plenty of physical play. If things get ugly, the Spartans should have an edge. Michigan is 231st in the country in rebounding, and Michigan State is ninth. By limiting the Wolverines to one shot on offense and getting a few second-chance looks of their own, the Spartans could cause their rival plenty of problems.

The X-factor in the game could be Green for Michigan State. The forward is a versatile player that contributes on both ends of the court, and he is the closest thing to a star either side has. Green leads the Spartans in scoring (15.8) and rebounding (10.1). He also average more than three assists, more than a block and more than a steal per game. Green can score in the post of from the perimeter and has the length and athleticism to take over a game in crunch time.

In the end, Michigan State’s offensive style seems better suited for a matchup of two strong defenses. Granted, the Wolverines could always get hot from outside and change the tempo, but the Spartans’ ability to grind down opponents on both ends of the court should win out in the end. Michigan is at a serious disadvantage when it comes to rebounding, and it is a weakness that is going to be tough to overcome, even at home. As long as the Spartans take advantage of their edge in the paint, they should pick up a big road win.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (-1 ½) Cover the Spread

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