2012 College Basketball Picks: Michigan St @ Minnesota Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks

2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Michigan St @ Minnesota Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 12/31/2012: The Big Ten kicks off conference play with a showdown between the 19th-ranked Michigan State Spartans (11-2) and the 11th-ranked Minnesota Golden Gophers (12-1) Monday night in Minneapolis. Minnesota’s lone blemish on the year came against Duke while the typically brutal out-of-conference schedule for the Spartans has included losses to Connecticut and Miami along with a victory over Kansas. Monday’s game is a chance for both sides to add to their already-solid resumes, and in a loaded Big Ten, getting off to a quick start in conference play is all the more important. Overall, it’s not a bad way to welcome the new year, and playing at home, the Golden Gophers are six-point favorites.

As is the case most years, Michigan State has been winning with its defense. The Spartans currently lead the Big Ten in points allowed, opponent field goal percentage and blocks. Big men Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne patrol the paint and help the Spartans control the boards while guards Keith Appling and Gary Harris lead the modest but efficient offensive attack. Basically, this is a typical Tom Izzo team. Michigan State doesn’t overwhelm opponents offensively, but the Spartans play tough defense, take quality shots and take care of business on the boards.

With athleticism in the frontcourt and plenty of firepower in the backcourt, Minnesota is one of the more balance teams in the Big Ten this year. Guards Andre Hollins, Austin Hollins and Joe Coleman are all scoring in double figures while forwards Rodney Williams and Trevor Mbakwe have been blocking shots and controlling the boards all season for a top 25 rebounding team. Williams in particular has emerged as a star, leading the team in scoring and keying an aggressive defense that leads the Big Ten in steals per game.

The Spartans Win If:

Minnesota is loaded with speed and athleticism, and the Golden Gophers generate a lot of their offense off turnovers and second-chance points. If the Spartans are able to limit their turnovers and control the glass, they will force the Golden Gophers to score a majority of their points in half-court situations. Michigan State will have the huge advantage in that scenario. The Spartans have the more efficient offense, and they have two reliable post scorers to pound the ball inside to for quality looks. If the Spartans make this game a defensive battle played at a slower pace, their physical, grinding style of play on both ends will win out.

The Golden Gophers Win If:

If Minnesota tries to go toe to toe with the Spartans in the half court, the Golden Gophers are going to have issues. The Spartans have more size inside and are better at controlling the boards. On the flip side, Minnesota has more speed and athleticism and has a much more explosive offense. If Minnesota wins the hustle categories like fast-break and second-chance points, Michigan State’s offense is going to have issues keeping pace. If the Golden Gophers can push the tempo and get plenty of quick looks in transition, Williams and company can run the Spartans out of the gym in a higher-scoring game.

Bottom Line:

While Minnesota definitely brings more offensive firepower to this fight, Izzo’s coaching philosophy has the Spartans built to handle tough road games like this one. The Spartans are a great rebounding team, they don’t give up many easy baskets around the rim, and they don’t take many bad shots. All three of which will limit the Golden Gophers’ transition scoring opportunity. At the end of the day, Michigan State is going to slow the pace of the game when it has the ball, and get physical on defense when Minnesota is on offense. Going on the road and winning in college basketball is tough, especially against a fast, athletic team like the Golden Gophers. That being said, the Spartans have the perfect recipe for handling a hostile environment. Win or lose, Michigan State’s style of play on both ends of the court will keep things close.

Prediction: Michigan State Spartans (+6) Cover the Spread

Michigan St @ Minnesota
Line: Minnesota -6.5
Total: Over/Under 128.5
Time: 2 PM EST on ESPN2

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