2012 College Basketball Picks: Kansas @ Ohio State Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks

2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Kansas @ Ohio State Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 12/22/2012: A pair of top-10 teams will clash Saturday afternoon when the ninth-ranked Kansas Jayhawks (9-1) face the Ohio State Buckeyes (9-1). The game is a chance for both programs to make a statement heading into conference play and is also a rematch of a Final Four matchup last season. Both sides have lost their toughest test to date with Kansas falling to Michigan State and Ohio State losing to Duke. With otherwise modest schedules, the loser of Saturday’s game is going to have its top-10 status questioned. Playing in Columbus, the Buckeyes are 5 ½-point favorites.

For the most part, Kansas has handled life without its two top scorers from a year ago. With power forward Thomas Robinson in the NBA, center Jeff Withey has produced in an expanded role. He is currently second on the team in scoring and is leading Kansas with 8.1 rebounds and 5.4 blocks per game. Meanwhile, freshman guard Ben McLemore has stepped into the role filled by point guard Tyshawn Taylor, leading the team in scoring and 3-pointers made. Travis Releford and Elijah Johnson are the two other main cogs for a Jayhawks bunch that is scoring almost 78 points per game and is in the top 20 in the country in field goal percentage. The bench remains a work in progress, and depth is Kansas’ biggest weakness at this point.

After losing Jared Sullinger and William Buford, this year’s Ohio State team has a bit of a different feel. As expected, small forward Deshaun Thomas has been a stud, leading the Buckeyes in scoring and rebounding. However, the supporting cast remains inconsistent as point guard Aaron Craft and other remain stronger contributors on the defensive end than on the offensive end. In general, Ohio State still has plenty of speed and athleticism and rank 25th in the country in scoring. That being said, the Buckeyes don’t have the physical presence in the paint without Sullinger, and they currently rank outside the top 50 in rebounding and outside the top 40 in field goal percentage.

The Jayhawks Win If:

Kansas has a big edge inside with Withey on both ends of the court. Ohio State really doesn’t have a player that can check him in the post, and on the defensive end, he can basically protect the rim by himself. If Withey shows up aggressive and looking to score and stays out of foul trouble, the Jayhawks should be able to wear down the Buckeyes in the paint. Defensively, Kansas has to use multiple bodies to slow down and wear down Thomas. As the Jayhawks discovered in last year’s Final Four matchup, disrupting Thomas can bring the Ohio State offense to a halt. Overall, Kansas can knock off the Buckeyes if Withey controls the paint on both ends of the court and Thomas has to take a lot of shots to get his points.

The Buckeyes Win If:

The easiest way for the Buckeyes to pick up the win is for Thomas to have a monster game. When he is dialed in, he can knock down shots from the perimeter, get to the foul line and kill defenses with his mid-range game. However, Thomas has had trouble carrying the scoring load by himself against top teams, including in the Final Four loss to Kansas last year. If the Buckeyes want to get revenge on the Jayhawks, they need one or two other plays in their rotation to have a solid offensive game. Whether it’s Craft, LaQuinton Ross, Lenzelle Smith Jr. or somebody else, the Buckeyes need someone to either take pressure of Thomas or make Kansas pay for double teaming him. Defensively, Ohio State doesn’t necessarily have to shut down Withey, but the Buckeyes have to keep him off the offensive glass and force him to try to score with his back to the basket. A little help for Thomas and a group effort on the glass will push Ohio State past Kansas.

The Bottom Line:

In last year’s Final Four matchup, Thomas was the most important player on the court for either side. When he was in the game and knocking down shots, the Buckeyes were in control of the game. When he went to the bench with foul trouble, Ohio State lost the momentum and could never regain. With both sides losing plenty of star power after last season, these are once again two evenly matched teams. The turning point will likely be whether Thomas or Withey has more of an impact on the game. Unfortunately for the Buckeyes, sophomore center Amir Williams is the only player in their roster taller than 6-7, and he is not even close to the same caliber of player as Withey and is playing just 15 minutes per game. At the end of the day, Kansas has multiple, athletic wing players that can take turns wearing down Thomas while Ohio State just doesn’t have the size to match up with Withey in the post. While the Buckeyes continue to try to find a reliable No. 2 punch to Thomas, Withey and Kansas will be able to cover the spread if not win outright.

Prediction: Kansas Jayhawks (+5 ½) Cover the Spread 

Kansas @ Ohio State
Line: Ohio St -5
Total: Over/Under 141.5
Time: 4 PM EST on CBS

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Basketball season for daily Free College Basketball Predictions and Vegas College Basketball Odds plus daily updated Men’s 2013 National Championship Betting Odds.