2012 College Basketball Picks: Kansas @ Baylor Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/8/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Kansas @ Baylor 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions on ESPN2 2/8/12: It is getting crowded atop the Big 12 standings as three teams ranked in the top-10 nationally are tied in the loss column with the regular season quickly winding down. The cloudy picture should get a little clearer Wednesday night when the 10th-ranked Kansas Jayhawks (18-5) travel to Waco to face the sixth-ranked Baylor Bears (21-2). The winner will stay tied with fourth-ranked Missouri for the top spot in the conference, while the loser will face an uphill battle to win the Big 12. Not to mention the fact that the winner will stay in the running for a top seed in the NCAA tournament. The Bears are favored but only by two points.

Wednesday’s game is a rematch of an earlier meeting between the teams that Kansas won handily, albeit at home. The Jayhawks overpowered and outmuscled the Bears in a 92-74 victory on January 16, dominating Baylor in the paint. However, playing on the road on college basketball is much different than playing at home. Not to mention the fact that Kansas’ confidence has to be a bit shaky. The Jayhawks are coming off a 74-71 loss to Missouri, when they let a big lead slip away in the final minutes. Bouncing back from a tough loss is never easy, and bouncing back on the road against a top-10 team is even harder.

While both sides have a reason to be worried entering the matchup, both teams have some star power to lean on as well. Two of the premier big men in the country will be on display in Kansas forward Thomas Robinson and Baylor’s Perry Jones III. Jones is averaging 14.8 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, while shooting 55.2 percent from the field. Meanwhile, Robinson is among the favorites for the Wooden Award, averaging 18.0 points on 54.8 percent shooting, along with 12.0 rebounds. Jones led the Bears in scoring with 18 the first time these two teams met, but Robinson was dominant, dropping 27 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. Unless Baylor does a better job controlling Robinson this time around, the outcome probably won’t be any different.

With both big men likely to get their numbers once again, the game could be decided by each side’s secondary scorer. For Kansas, point guard Tyshawn Taylor plays that role. He scored a game-high 28 against the Bears in January, and for the year, he is averaging almost 17 points. When he is hitting his perimeter shots and controlling the offense, the Jayhawks are tough to beat. When he is turning the ball over and taking bad shots, Kansas has been exposed as too one dimensional. In fact, Taylor’s play may determine the outcome of the game even more so than Robinson’s play.

Point guard play will be crucial for Baylor as well. Like Taylor, Pierre Jackson is his team’s second-leading scorer at just over 12 per game. More importantly, he has taken on a closers role of sorts, taking and making big shots down the stretch of close games. Baylor is at its best when Jackson is keeping everyone involved on the offensive end and is getting big men Quincy Acy, Quincy Miller and Jones easy looks around the rim. When Jackson has made poor decisions, the Bears have become a jump shooting team that struggles in half court sets.

Playing at home should certainly help Baylor in the rematch, and the Bears should also benefit from the earlier beatdown at the hands of the Jayhawks. Baylor should be better prepared for the physical style of play Kansas brings to the table. Robinson is still likely to get his share of points, but after seeing what didn’t work in January, Jones and company should spend more time attacking the basket and less time shooting jump shots this time around. The end result should be as much closer game, and Jackson’s clutch shooting and the home crowd should give the edge to Baylor.

Prediction: Baylor Bears (-2) Cover the Spread

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