2012 College Basketball Picks: Baylor @ Missouri Odds and Predictions – Free NCAAB Picks 2/11/2012

Free College Basketball Picks and Spreads: Baylor @ Missouri 2012 NCAA Basketball Vegas Odds, Free Picks, and Expert Predictions 2/11/12: Less than a month ago, Baylor and Missouri went back and forth in one of the more exciting games of the college basketball season. Missouri won in an 89-88 classic, and Saturday, the two teams will go at it again. The fourth-ranked Tigers (22-2) enter the matchup atop the Big 12 standings, but the Bears (21-3) can pull even with a win. Both teams are in a dog fight with the Kansas Jayhawks for the conference crown and a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, and Saturday’s winner will take a big step toward achieving both goals. After picking up a one-point win in Waco, the Tigers are a 6 ½-point favorite on their home court.

Confidence is certainly on Missouri’s side in this one. In addition to beating the Bears earlier this year, the Tigers are riding a four-game winning streak into this weekend’s rematch. More importantly, the streak includes a thrilling come-from-behind victory against Kansas that saw the Tigers close the game on an 11-0 run. Meanwhile, Baylor enters Saturday’s showdown coming off its second loss of the year to the Jayhawks. The Bears were dominated physically by Kansas in both meetings, and since they are now 0-3 against their main competition for the Big 12 title, the possibility of going 0-4 after Saturday’s game has to weigh heavily.

As the first meeting between the two teams suggests, the Tigers and Bears can put points on the board. Both sides are averaging more than 75 points per game and rank in the top 25 in terms of field goal percentage. Missouri and its guard-oriented offense has been the more impressive of the two teams on the stat sheet, ranking seventh in the country in scoring (80.5) and third in shooting percentage (50.1). However, the smaller lineup does come at a cost, and the Tigers are one of the worst rebounding teams in the country.

Of course, Baylor’s size advantage didn’t help the Bears all that much in January. In fact, star forward Perry Jones III and Quincy Acy combined for just 26 points in the loss. Meanwhile, Missouri’s Ricardo Ratliffe looked like the NBA prospect, putting up 27 points by himself on 11-of-14 shooting. Ratliffe is the only true big man that starts for the Tigers, and if he can once again outscore both of Baylor’s starting big men, the Bears are going to be in serious trouble.

Even if Jones and Acy do get on track on the offensive end, they will still have to find a way to contend with the speed of Missouri’s four-guard lineup. Marcus Denmon and Kim English are the top scorers out of the group, and both can take over a game. Denmon is averaging a team-high 18.0 points per game, connecting on a team-best 65 3-pointers. He has also attempted more than 100 free throws this year and is shooting an impressive 90.2 percent from the foul line. Meanwhile, English is hitting almost 48 percent of his attempts from beyond the arc and is averaging 14.0 points per game. Together, they can score a lot of points in a short amount of time.

The X-factor in the game will likely be Baylor point guard Pierre Jackson. He had a strong game on the stat sheet in the first meeting with Missouri, scoring 20 points and dishing out 15 assists. However, he played the game at the Tigers’ tempo and failed to get the Bears’ big men involved on a regular basis. Jones took just eight shots, even though he is the team’s leading scorer for the year and shoots more than 53 percent from the field. Jackson has to make sure Baylor plays to its strengths this time around because attempting to outrun and outscore Missouri probably won’t end well for the Bears.

In the end, it is going to be tough for the Bears to rebound from a loss to Kansas with a win at Missouri. Both teams want to put a lot of points on the board, but Missouri’s offense has been more productive and more efficient all season. Baylor’s best chance is to slow the game down and feed the ball to its post players on the offensive end, but the Bears have been unwilling to fully commit to the strategy in the past. That isn’t likely to change this weekend, and with Denmon and company providing plenty of firepower, Missouri should thrive in a fast-paced game.

Prediction: Missouri Tigers (-6 ½) Cover the Spread

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