2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Ohio St @ Duke Predictions – ACC-Big Ten Challenge

2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Ohio State @ Duke Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 11/28/2012: A pair of top-five teams will go at it as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge when the fourth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) head to Cameron Indoor Stadium to face the second-ranked Duke Blue Devils (6-0). For Duke, the game is a chance to add another top team to a hit list that already includes the likes of Kentucky, Louisville, Minnesota and VCU. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes are looking for their first statement win on the young season. Ohio State crushed Duke when the two teams got together last season, but this time around, the Blue Devils are six-point favorites.

Both sides are averaging just under 80 points per game, but Duke and OSU take very different approaches on the offensive end. With shooters like Seth Curry, Rasheed Sulaimon and Quinn Cook, the Blue Devils spread out opposing defenses and take plenty of 3-pointers. What has made this year’s team even stronger is the play of Mason Plumlee. The center is leading the team with 19.7 points per game on 67.2 percent shooting and is also averaging 10.0 rebounds per game. His post scoring has created even more open looks for Duke’s perimeter shooters and has made the Blue Devils more than just a team that lives and dies by the 3-point shot.

Ohio State on the other hand doesn’t have the scoring depth that it has had in past seasons. However, the Buckeyes do have arguably the best small forward in the country in Deshaun Thomas and the best perimeter defender in point guard Aaron Craft. Thomas is off to a fast start averaging 24.0 points per game on 54.0 percent shooting, and Craft is averaging a career-high 14.3 points and has a 7.0 assist to turnover ratio. More importantly, OSU does an excellent job of getting their two best players quality looks. The Buckeyes currently rank eighth in the country in field goal percentage and second in points per possession.

The Buckeyes Win If: 

Ohio State is still searching for a supporting cast, and until some role players step forward, Thomas will have to continue to shoulder the load on offense. Plain and simple, Thomas has to have a big game offensively for the Buckeyes to contend. Meanwhile, Craft has to play stifling defense on whoever has the hot hand on the perimeter for the Blue Devils. Ohio State doesn’t have the perimeter firepower to keep pace with Duke in a high-scoring shootout, but the Buckeyes do have the half-court offense to win a game that is decided by which team can be more efficient on the offensive end. If Thomas is the best player on the court Wednesday and the Buckeyes are able to impose their physical style of play on the defensive end, they can outmuscle the Blue Devils for the second year in a row.

The Blue Devils Win If:

Having plenty of quality perimeter players that can knock down shots from beyond the arc definitely helps Duke, but the strong play of Plumlee is the biggest reason the Blue Devils have been knocking off some of the top teams in the country. If he continues to be the physical presence on the boards that Duke has lacked in years past and forces Ohio State to account for his scoring ability, open looks on the perimeter are going to become available. Ohio State has plenty of athletic defenders, but a strong showing from Plumlee will prevent the Buckeyes from taking away the perimeter shot. Duke definitely has the edge in terms of quality scoring options, and if the Blue Devils maintain a balance on offense and stop the game from becoming a grinding, half-court affair, they should have no problem outscoring OSU.

Bottom Line:

Last year, Sullinger and Ohio State bullied Duke and controlled the action from start to finish. While the Buckeyes’ offense has remained efficient even without Sullinger, OSU just doesn’t have the same imposing force inside to pound away at the Blue Devils. More importantly, Duke actually has the best big man on the court this time around in Plumlee, and with little chance of Ohio State containing him one on one, Curry and the rest of the Blue Devils’ perimeter shooters are going to have some quality looks. Craft can’t guard everyone, and Thomas can only score so many points. In the end, Duke’s superior depth and offensive firepower will allow them to separate themselves from the Buckeyes and win the game.

Prediction: Duke Blue Devils (-6) Cover the Spread

Ohio State @ Duke
Line: Duken -5.5
Total: Over/Under 142.5
Time: 9:30 PM EST on ESPN

Stop by NSAwins.com daily throughout the NCAA Basketball season for daily Free College Basketball Predictions and Vegas College Basketball Odds plus daily updated Men’s 2013 National Championship Betting Odds.