2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Louisville @ Missouri Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 11/23/2012

2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Louisville @ Missouri Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 11/23/2012: A pair of top-25 teams will go head to head in the semifinals of The Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas Friday night when the 13th-ranked Missouri Tigers (4-0) face the second-ranked Louisville Cardinals (4-0). Both teams were given a run for their money in the previous round of the tournament, but while Missouri got by a solid Stanford team, Louisville survived against a Northern Iowa team that the Cardinals were supposed to dispatch with ease. Regardless of how these teams got the semifinals, both have a big opportunity Friday. Not only will the winner earn a spot in the tournament’s championship game, but they will put a quality victory on their resume early in the year. Louisville is a 5 ½-point favorite.

Both sides take very different approaches to the game. Missouri prefers to play at a fast pace and make opponents try to keep up with their potent offense that is averaging more than 81 points per game on the year. Point guard Phil Pressey and forward Laurence Bowers are the top scorers for the Tigers, and they form a nice inside-outside combo. Louisville on the other hand prefers to slow the game down on offense, control the boards and play suffocating defense. Center Gorgui Dieng is one of the better shot blockers in the country, and he protects the rim for a man-to-man defense that will test the conditioning and discipline of any opponent. On the year, Louisville is allowing less than 48 points per game. In other words, this matchup will be a true clash of styles.

The Tigers Win If:

While Pressey can score as well as any point guard in the country, his ability to handle the pressure from the Louisville defense and control the Cardinals’ speedy point guard Peyton Siva will be much more important in this game. If Pressey can keep Missouri’s turnovers to a minimum and keep Siva from penetrating and finding open shooters, the Cardinals are really going to have to work for their points. Another key player for the Tigers will be Connecticut transfer Alex Oriakhi. The forward is leading the Tigers with 9.8 rebounds per game, and he will have to provide the muscle in the paint for an otherwise perimeter-oriented team. If Pressey outplays Siva and Oriakhi makes sure the Tigers hold their own on the boards, Missouri’s offensive firepower should be able to do the rest.

The Cardinals Win If:

The downside of Louisville’s relentless defense is that the Cardinals often struggle on the offensive end. Guard Russ Smith is the team’s leading scorer at 20.0 points per game, but he is the only player averaging in double figures. Needless to say Smith has to have a solid night shooting the ball, but more importantly, the Cardinals have to control the pace and make sure this becomes a low-scoring game. A strong game from Siva will go a long way to making that happen, and if he can get the better of Pressey on both ends of the court, it will dramatically time the scales in favor of Louisville. If this game is played mainly in the half court, the size of Dieng and Chane Behanan inside and the overall defense of the Cardinals will allow them to grind out a win.

Bottom Line:

Generally, it is easier for a team like Louisville to slow the game down than it is for a team like Missour ito speed it up. However, the Cardinals have been absolutely horrible on the offensive end and are shooting less than 41 percent from the field as a team. Meanwhile, Missouri has a player in the backcourt and the frontcourt capable of scoring 20-plus points on any given night. Not to mention the fact that Pressey gives the Tigers a player capable of controlling Siva, who is the spark plug for what little offense the Cardinals are able to generate. Louisville will no doubt improve on the offensive end as the year goes on, but as far as Saturday is concerned, the Cardinals are in trouble.Louisville’s defense is great, but the offense won’t provide enough support to keep pace with the high-scoring Tigers.

Prediction: Missouri Tigers (+5) Cover the Spread 
Louisville @ Missouri
Line: Louisville -5.5
Total: Over/Under 135
Time: 9:30 PM EST on ESPN

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