2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Florida @ Arizona Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks

2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Florida @ Arizona Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 12/15/2012: A pair of undefeated teams will go head to head Saturday night when the fifth-ranked Florida Gators (7-0) go on the road to face the eighth-ranked Arizona Wildcats (7-0). Although both teams have knocked of some quality opponents on the young season, this will be the first major test for both sides. For the Wildcats, a win would validate their lofty preseason ranking following last year’s disappointing 23-12 season that ended in a first-round loss in the NIT. Meanwhile, Florida has a chance to pick up a rare road win against a top-10 opponent. A statement win is up for grabs for both teams, and after knocking off Arizona in overtime last year, the Gators are three-point favorites this time around.

Florida’s success this season has stemmed from an all-around balanced approach. Guard Kenny Boynton leads the team in scoring at more than 14 per game, and fellow guards Mike Rosario and Scottie Wilbekin round out a solid backcourt. Meanwhile, center Patric Young and forward Erik Murphy make up a dynamic frontcourt. Young is the muscle inside, leading the team in rebound and blocked shots. Murphy on the other hand averages almost two 3-pointers per game and stretches opposing defenses with his perimeter game. Overall, the Gators have five players averaging at least one 3-pointer per game for an offense averaging just under 74 points per game. Defensively, Florida has been stout. The Gators are currently second in the country in scoring defense, holding opponents to less than 49 points per game on 34.9 percent shooting.

An up-tempo offense has been the backbone of Arizona’s success thus far. The backcourt of Nick Johnson and Mark Lyons pushes the pace for a unit that averages almost 80 points per game and ranks 17th in the country with a 48.6 field goal percentage. The Wildcats do lack size and aren’t the best rebounding team by any means, but the frontcourt of senior Solomon Hill and freshman Brandon Ashley are excellent athletes that fit Arizona’s up-tempo system perfectly.

The Gators Win If:

While the Gators are once again blessed with some dynamic guards, a balanced attack will be crucial if Florida hopes to win on the road. When these two teams played last year, Young led the way with 25 points and 10 rebounds. If Florida keeps him involved in the offense again this year and Young has another strong showing, the Wildcats are going to have to decide whether or not to double team the post or leave the Florida perimeter players with open looks. Defensively, the Gators need to limit Arizona’s transition scoring chances and make the Wildcats beat them with their half-court offense. If the Gators maintain a balanced attack on the offensive end and make this game come down to which side can execute better rather than an up-tempo game, they have the half-court offense and defense to knock off Arizona.

The Wildcats Win If:

Although Florida has plenty of perimeter firepower and can score some points in its own right, the Wildcats need to turn this game into a high-scoring shootout. Arizona got punished in the paint by Young and Gators last year, but if Johnson and Lyons can push the pace and create an up-and-down tempo, Florida’s half-court offense and size inside becomes irrelevant. If the Wildcats make sure this game is played at a fast pace with plenty of quick shots, they have the speed and athleticism on the perimeter and in the paint to outrun and outscore the Gators.

Bottom Line:

Last year’s meeting between these two teams was a thriller with the Gators eventually emerging with a six-point win in overtime. Florida’s advantage inside was the ultimate difference in that game, although Arizona has added some freshmen big men, the Wildcats still don’t have the physical presence to matchup with Young in the post. At the end of the day, it is always easier to slow down a game than it is to speed it up, and the Gators are going to be able to dump the ball into Young whenever they need to slow the pace and get a quality shot. Both sides will launch plenty of 3-pointers and make runs throughout the game, but Florida’s post scoring and relentless defense will allow them to escape with a big road win.

Prediction: Florida Gators (-3) Cover the Spread

Florida @ Arizona
Line: Florida -1.5
Total: Over/Under 135
Time: 10 PM EST on ESPN

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