2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Duke vs Louisville Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 11/24/2012

2012 College Basketball Odds and Picks: Duke vs. Louisville Vegas Odds and Predictions – Free College Basketball Picks 11/24/2012: A pair of powerhouse college basketball programs will square off in the finals of the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas Saturday night. The fifth-ranked Duke Blue Devils (5-0) will meet the second-ranked Louisville Cardinals (5-0) with the tournament title at stake, as well as the chance to earn an early season statement victory. With both teams on the short list of national title contenders, Saturday’s showdown might just be the best game the young college hoops season has offered thus far. Not surprisingly, oddsmakers are expecting a tight one with the Cardinals being favored by just 1 ½-points.

Both teams have very different approaches to the game. Duke has a perimeter-oriented offense built around the 3-point shot. Shooting guard Seth Curry is the star of the group, but fellow guards Quinn Cook and Rasheed Sulaimon along with forward Ryan Kelly can also knock down plenty of shots from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, center Mason Plumlee is basically Duke’s lone source of frontcourt scoring. Of course, the Blue Devils don’t need anyone else if he continues to average more than 20 points while shooting better than 68 percent from the field. Not surprisingly, the Blue Devils can struggle on the boards and at stopping opponents from attacking the rim, but their efficient, high-scoring offense tends to cover up the flaws.

Meanwhile, Louisville focuses its attention on the defensive end, often sacrificing offense in order to save as much energy as possible for the defensive end. Center Gorgui Dieng is the enforcer in the paint and on the glass, and fellow big Chane Behanan is a solid rebounder, as well. Having to reliable players in the backcourt allows the Cardinals’ perimeter defenders to play pressure, man-to-man defense most of the game. The strategy certainly worked against Missouri Friday night when Louisville held a Tigers’ offense that was averaging more than 81 points per game to just 61 points. When the Cardinals are on offense, the backcourt of Russ Smith and point guard Peyton Siva tends to dictate the tempo. When Smith and Siva play well, everything else tends to fall into place.

The Blue Devils Win If:

While Duke tends to live and die with the 3-point shot at times, Plumlee is probably the Blue Devils’ most important player in this matchup. He is averaging 20.4 points and 10.6 rebounds per game and is basically the only physical presence for Duke on the glass and in the paint. If Plumlee is able to force Louisville to double team him in the post, it is going to open up perimeter looks for Curry, Kelly and the rest Duke’s shooters. Meanwhile, he also has to keep the Cardinals off the offensive glass to ensure that Louisville’s sometimes inconsistent offense doesn’t get any easy buckets. If the Blue Devils can get their perimeter attack rolling on the offensive end and make Louisville work for their baskets by limiting turnovers and preventing second-chance opportunities, Duke should be in good shape to win a higher-scoring game.

The Cardinals Win If:

As they showed against Missouri in the semifinals of the tournament, the Cardinals are next to unbeatable when they are getting easy scoring opportunities. Louisville’s defense is always suffocating, but when it is also generating turnovers and creating transition baskets, the Cardinals’ offense reaches a new level. If Louisville is able to use its defense to spark its offense, the Cardinals are going to be in great shape. The play of Dieng will be a big factor in whether or not that happens, and if he is able to control Plumlee in the post by himself, the rest of the Louisville defenders will be able to pressure Duke’s perimeter players and take away the 3-point shot. If the Cardinals make sure this game comes down to which team is more physical on defense and on the glass rather than to which team can shoot the ball better, they should be able to power their way past Duke.

Bottom Line:

Louisville followed a horrible showing against Northern Iowa with a thorough domination of a Missouri team that has plenty of perimeter firepower. As great as Duke’s perimeter players can be at shooting the ball, the Blue Devils aren’t exactly loaded with players that can blow by defenders and get to the rim. The Cardinals are going to be able to get up in the face of Duke’s shooters and limit open looks from beyond the arc. Plumlee is certainly an X-factor, but Dieng is a strong post defender and has been doing a better job of avoiding fall trouble this year. After helping hold Missouri forward Laurence Bowers to just six points, Dieng should be able to at least hold his own against Plumlee, as well. From there, the aggressive, physical play of Louisville’s defense will take it toll. Keep in mind that VCU plays a very similar style on defense and held its own against Duke in the semifinals. The Cardinals are going to bring the same type of intensity on the defensive end but are going to have better athletes applying the pressure. In the end, Louisville will find enough offense to support its defense and pick up the win.

Prediction: Louisville Cardinals (-1 ½) Cover the Spread

Louisville @ Missouri
Line: Louisville -1.5
Total: Over/Under 136.5
Time: 9:30 PM EST

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